813 AXNT20 KNHC 282315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu May 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 54W, S of 15N reaching French Guiana. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the wave axis from 07N to 10N between 50W and 55W. The wave is enhancing convection over French Guiana. A tropical wave is moving westward at about 15 kt across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 78W, and extends from western Jamaica to eastern Panama. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 16N16W and and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 05N35W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 06N between 20W and 34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Convection has flared-up again over the NW Gulf where a surface trough is analyzed. The trough runs from 29N93W to 25N97W. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis, likely associated with the convective activity there. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 22N to 27N W of 90W. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a ridge. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere W of 90W while mainly Light to gentle winds are over eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range W of 90W, and 1 to 3 ft E of 90W. Visible satellite pictures showed smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, creating hazy conditions. Observations along the Mexican coast also confirmed the presence of hazy conditions. For the forecast, fresh Fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each evening through Fri north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche, as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas will occur across the central and western Gulf of America, while gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas will prevail in the eastern basin, as high pressure persists over the northeastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will maintain hazy conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the end of the week. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to enter the basin Fri night into Sat, leading to moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds in the wake of the front in the northern basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A ridge persists N of the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge, and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 7 to 10 ft range over the south-central Caribbean per altimeter data, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere S of 18N and E of 82W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the NW Caribbean, with the exception of 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Convection has developed over parts of the Greater Antilles due to daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting. A band of transverse high clouds extends from northern Colombia to beyond Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. This clouds are the result of strong SW winds aloft, ahead of an upper-level low spinning over the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will occur across the southwestern through central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Venezuela, through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds may reach near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia late tonight. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras into this weekend. Looking ahead, a tropical wave analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles will traverse westward across the eastern and central Caribbean through this weekend, producing numerous thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas surrounding the wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave that is approaching the Lesser Antilles. High pressure of 1030 mb located in the vicinity of the Azores dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with its associated ridge extending southwestward toward the Bahamas and Florida. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds are noted. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range N of 20N, and 6 to 8 ft S of 20N. Farther E, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in fresh to strong northerly winds between the Canary Islands. Fresh to strong N winds are also noted from 18N to 23N between 17W and 23W. Rough seas are within the latter winds. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will pulse south of 25N through Fri as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected to develop offshore of Florida on Fri, with winds strengthening and expanding eastward to 70W by late Fri, ahead of a cold front moving through the eastern United States. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. The cold front is slated to move offshore into the Atlantic Fri night into Sat, with winds turning to the W and weakening behind the front. Looking ahead, the front will dissipate this weekend, and high pressure will build over the western Atlantic. $$ GR