814 AXNT20 KNHC 280550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed May 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 49W from 03N to 14N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with this wave is observed from 04N to 14N between 44W and 53W. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 75W, S of Haiti to northern Colombia. The wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over northern Colombia, western Venezuela, as well as the north-central Caribbean including portions of Haiti. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues SW to near 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N E of 15W to the coast of Africa, and from 05N to 09N between 30W and 43W. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far SW Caribbean S of 11N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Two surface troughs are analyzed over the Gulf: one in the NW Gulf, and the other along the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Convergent winds around these features, as well as winds due to ridging extending into the basin, support scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over portions of the Gulf S of 24N and W of 91W. More diurnally-driven convection is seen lifting northward off the W coast of Cuba. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh E winds across portions of the Gulf S of 25N and W of 87W, with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-6 ft across areas W of 87W, with seas of 1-3 ft to the E of 87W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the NE Gulf through Thu. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico will support moderate to fresh SE winds across the western half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Thu night as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the end of the week. A weak cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf later this week. The front will stall from central Florida to Texas during the weekend where it will gradually dissipate. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge persists N of the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian Low is supporting fresh to strong E winds over the south-central Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere S of 18N and E of 83W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the NW Caribbean with the exception of 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers across the central and eastern Caribbean E of 74W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the central, and in portions of the southwestern Caribbean through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the remainder of the basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1030 mb located in the vicinity of the Azores dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with its associated ridge extending SW toward the Bahamas and Florida. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate E winds elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W. South of 20N and W of 30W, moderate to fresh E winds are noted. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range N of 20N, and 6 to 8 ft S of 20N. Farther E, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds in a region from the Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary Islands and points eastward. Seas are 6-8 ft in this region. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure ridging will will persist roughly along 28N through Thu night, then shift east- southeastward through the upcoming weekend as the front approaches the U.S. southeastern coast. Moderate to fresh SW winds are forecast across the northeast Florida offshore waters Thu night ahead of the cold front expected to emerge off the northern Florida coast Fri night. The front will stall from near 31N74W to northeast Florida by Sat evening before dissipating late Sun. Locally strong SW winds are forecast ahead of the front Fri night into Sat. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure south of the basin will support moderate to fresh winds south of 25N. $$ Adams