806 AXNT20 KNHC 271620 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue May 27 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 02N-14N with axis near 46W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N-09N between 41W-52W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of Hispaniola and of 18N with axis near 72W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern portion of the wave that remains over Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from 07N26W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 30W and 40W. The eastern end of the east Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Panama and NW Colombia offshore waters, mainly S of 10N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge reaches southwestward from Florida to the central Gulf while lower pressures extends from inland Mexico to the western half of the basin. The resulting pressure gradient continues to support moderate to fresh SE winds W of 88W with moderate seas to 5 ft. East of 88W, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE and seas are slight to 3 ft. Otherwise, surface observations from oil platforms at the NW Gulf and from coastal stations along the Bay of Campeche indicate visibilities down to 3 nm, likely caused by hazy conditions related to ongoing agricultural fires in SE Mexico. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh SE winds across the western half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Thu night as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the end of the week. A weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf Fri morning. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 27N90W Fri night, then move E of the basin this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge over the subtropical Atlantic and lower pressure over NW Colombia is generating fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft in the south-central and portions of the SW basin. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and seas to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the region. Otherwise, a tropical wave just S of Hispaniola is generating scattered to isolated showers just S of the Island. For the forecast, pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the central, and portions of the southwest, Caribbean through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the majority of the remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a 1031 mb Azores High near 37N23W is dominating the Atlantic subtropical waters E of the Bahamas. The ridge also extends southward into the tropics to near 13N. Winds S of 25N and W of 30W are moderate to fresh from the E to SE. N of 25N and E of 30W, winds are mainly fresh to locally strong from the NE. Moderate seas prevail across most of the basin, except for slight seas W of 74W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will persist from east to west along roughly 27N/28N through Fri night. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh winds south of 25N. Otherwise, a series of weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the waters north of the ridge and between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Thu. Moderate to fresh SW winds are forecast across the NE Florida offshore waters Thu night ahead of a cold front forecast to move off the northern Florida coast Fri night. The front will stall from 31N74W to NE Florida by Sat evening before dissipating late Sun. Locally strong SW winds are forecast ahead of the front Fri night into Sat. $$ ERA