134 AXNT20 KNHC 270527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue May 27 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 14N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 08N between 40W and 45W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from south of the Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the Mona Passage, and over northern Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near Dakar, then curves southwestward to near 07N21W. An ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 05N40W, and from 04N45W to the northern coast of French Guiana. Scattered showers are noted south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 01N between 15W and 32W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near and up to 150 nm north of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the east Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge reaches southwestward from northern Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms south of Port Arthur, Texas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of the Yucatan Peninsula and off the Texas coast. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. Surface observations from oil platforms at the northwestern Gulf and from coastal stations along the Bay of Campeche indicate visibilities down to 3 nm, probably caused by hazy conditions related to ongoing agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico. For the forecast, a surface ridge will persist through Thu, supporting moderate to fresh SE wind across the western half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Thu night, as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward at night. Hazy conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf are expected to continue through the end of the week. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf Fri morning, extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 27N90W Fri night and move east of the area by Sat evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tight gradient between a broad surface ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure at northern Colombia is generating fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas exist south of Cuba and near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Windward and Mona Passages. Refer to the Tropical Wave and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for weather in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the central and portions of the southwest Caribbean through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the majority of the remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri. A tropical wave, south of the Dominican Republic, will continue to move across the central Caribbean through late Tue, and move into the southwest Caribbean through midweek. Another tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern basin Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over central Florida is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off northeastern Florida. Refer to the Tropical Wave and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a 1032 mb Azores High across 31N38W to the Great Bahama Bank is supporting gentle SE to SW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas north of 25N and west of 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 25N west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist. Gentle with locally moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will persist through Fri night, supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 25N. Otherwise, a series of weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the waters north of the ridge and between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Thu. Moderate to fresh SW winds are forecast across the northeastern Florida offshore waters Thu night ahead of a cold front forecast to come off the northern Florida coast Fri night. The front will stall from 31N74W to northeastern Florida by Sat evening before dissipating late Sun. Locally strong SW winds are forecast ahead of the front Fri night into Sat. $$ Chan