362 AXNT20 KNHC 261602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon May 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Limited convection is noted with this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 67W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 09.5N13.5W and extends SW to near 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N35W. It resumes from 05N39W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 20W and 32W, and from 02N to 07N between 40W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extends across the northeastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf waters W of 90W. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range W of 90W, 1 ft over the NE Gulf, and 2-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue across the NE Gulf through mid-week, supporting moderate to fresh SE wind across the western half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Thu night as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge of high pressure extends across the western Atlantic waters N of the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge, and low pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle winds are noted. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 6-7 ft elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the south-central and southwest Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the majority of the remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean continue to enhance the winds and seas over the tropical Atlantic waters mainly east of the Windward Islands through today. The wave is forecast to move across the central Caribbean by late Tue, and into the southwest Caribbean through mid-week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 37N24W. The ridge axis extends across roughly 28N. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere N of 20N. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds are noted. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range N of 20N, and 6-8 ft S of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will persist from east to west through Fri night, supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 25N. Otherwise, a series of weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the waters north of the ridge and between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Thu. The ridge will start to shift eastward late Fri ahead of a front moving off the Carolina coast. $$ AL