000
AXNT20 KNHC 260554
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon May 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 12N southward, 
and moving west near 15 kt. Hindered by much drier air at low to
mid levels, mainly widely scattered showers are seen near the
wave from 05N to 08N between 33W and 36W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from near the 
northern Leeward Islands southward into northeastern Venezuela,
and moving westward near 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is found just north of the ABC Islands but near the
southern Windward Islands. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of 
Guinea-Bissau and Senegal, then curves southwestward to near 
06N21W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N21W to 06N32W, then
from 06N36W to near the coastal border of French Guiana and
Suriname. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from
03N to 08N between 21W and 27W, and south of the monsoon trough
from 02N to 07N between 10W and 21W. For near and up to 120 nm 
north of the ITCZ, widely scattered moderate convection is present
between 36W and 47W, while scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is flaring up west of 47W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1020 mb high at 
the northeastern Gulf to just north of Veracruz, Mexico is
dominating the entire Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds with 1 
to 2 ft seas are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh E to SSE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail 
for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits. 
Observations from oil platforms in the northwestern Gulf, and 
coastal stations in the Bay of Campeche reveal visibilities down 
to 3 nm due to haze produced by agricultural fires in southeastern
Mexico.

For the forecast, the high pressure and related ridge will persist 
through midweek, supporting moderate to fresh SE wind across the 
western half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected north of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of
Campeche during the afternoon and evening hours through Thu 
night, as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward
at night. Smoke from agricultural fires are going to maintain 
hazy conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf 
through at least midweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Surface ridge near 28N continues to support trade winds across the
entire Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are producing scattered
heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms near southeastern Cuba 
and the Windward Passage. Refer to the Tropical Wave and Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. 
Strong with locally near-gale NE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas 
are present at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong E winds 
and seas at 5 to 6 ft dominate the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly fresh 
E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the north-central Gulf.
Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are seen 
at the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of
4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to support 
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the south- 
central and southwestern basin through Fri. Winds will likely 
pulse to near-gale force off Colombia through tonight. Moderate 
to fresh trades are forecast for the majority of the remainder 
basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras at night. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will
continue to enhance the winds and seas over the tropical Atlantic
waters mainly east of the Windward Islands through Mon. The
tropical wave is forecast to move through the eastern Caribbean 
through Mon, across the central Caribbean by late Tue, and into 
the southwest Caribbean through midweek. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A subtropical ridge reaches southwestward from a 1031 mb high 
near the Azores across 31N43W to beyond northern Florida. 
Convergent southerly winds are generating scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms just east of northeastern Florida, and 
also southeast of Bermuda, north of 28N between 56W and 62W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the 
Atlantic Basin. The subtropical ridge is sustaining gentle to 
moderate ENE to SSE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 24N and west
of 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 24N and west of 
35W, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are 
evident. Gentle with locally moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5 
to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the 
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will persist 
through Fri night, supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 
25N, except for locally strong winds just north of Hispaniola 
pulsing tonight and Mon night. Otherwise, a series of weak frontal
troughs will sweep eastward across the waters north of the ridge 
and between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Thu. Looking 
ahead, the ridge will start to shift eastward late Fri ahead of a 
front moving off the Carolina coast.

$$

Chan