962 AXNT20 KNHC 251602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun May 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W/31W, south of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 27W and 36W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 15N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 55W and 61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of Africa near 09N13W and extends SW to near 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 05N28W. It resumes from 05N32W to 04.5N51W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 13W and 20W, and from 04N to 07N between 47W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered in the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the western Gulf and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will continue across the NE Gulf through mid- week, supporting moderate to fresh SE wind across the western half of the Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Thu night as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through early next weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure prevails over the Atlantic waters north of the area. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over much of the remainder of the Caribbean, except light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas in the south central Caribbean are in the 7-10 ft range, and 4-7 ft elsewhere in the central Caribbean. Over the eastern Caribbean, seas of 5-6 ft prevail, while seas of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds will likely pulse to near gale force off Colombia at night through Sun. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the majority of the remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night. A tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean will continue to enhance the winds and seas over the tropical Atlantic waters mainly east of the Windward Islands through Mon. The wave is forecast to move through the eastern Caribbean through Mon, across the central Caribbean by late Tue, and into the southwest Caribbean through mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 37N31W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the waters N of 20N, with moderate to fresh winds S of 20N. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range N of 20N, and 5-8 ft S of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will persist from east to west along roughly 28N through Thu night, supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 25N, except for locally strong winds just north of Hispaniola pulsing tonight. Otherwise, a series of weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the waters north of the ridge and between northeast Florida and Bermuda through mid week. $$ AL