979 
AXNT20 KNHC 241037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat May 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 22W, from 00N to 15N, moving west at 5 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave from
03N to 11N between 10W and 27W.

A tropical wave is along 48W, from 00N to 14N, moving west at 
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N
to 12N between 40W and 59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 11N16W 
and extends southwestward to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 
06N26W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 
07N between 27W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure centered in the SE Gulf is supporting 
light to gentle winds over the majority of the E Gulf E of 87W.
West of 87W, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are ongoing along
with 3-4 ft seas. Slight seas to 3 ft are present across the
eastern basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will develop across the northeast
Gulf through Wed, supporting moderate to fresh SE wind across the
western half of the Gulf. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each 
afternoon and evening through Wed night as a trough develops 
inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at 
night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico are expected to 
maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and 
western Gulf through the middle of next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Fresh to near gale-force trades are across the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds being off 
the coast of Colombia. These winds are a result of a strong 
pressure gradient between a 1008 mb Colombian Low and a broad 
surface ridge in the subtropical Atlantic extending southward to 
the northern basin. Seas are 8-11 ft within these winds. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas, 
except in the NW Caribbean N of 18N where trades are gentle to 
moderate and seas are 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue
to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft 
in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed night.
Pulsing near gale force winds are likely offshore Colombia at 
night through Sun. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the 
majority of the remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to 
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night. A tropical wave 
will move across the tropical Atlantic waters Sat and enter the E 
Caribbean Sat night into Sun, thus enhancing the winds and seas 
over the tropical Atlantic waters mainly east of the Windward 
Islands through Mon. The wave is forecast to move across Puerto 
Rico by Sun evening and across Hispaniola Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves. 

The subtropical Atlantic waters continue under the influence of a
broad ridge associated with the Azores High, which extends into
the tropics near 15N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
a tropical wave with axis near 48W supports fresh winds between
40W and the Lesser Antilles as well as the subtropical waters from
20N to 23N between 40W and the approaches of the Windward Passage.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail between the W coast of
Africa and 20W to the N of 20N. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are elsewhere E of 65W. Seas in the vicinity of the 
tropical wave near 48W are 7-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will
continue to build westward today as a surface trough just SE of 
Bermuda continues to weaken. The ridge will then stay in place 
through the middle of next week, supporting moderate to fresh 
winds south of 25N, except for locally strong winds just north of 
Hispaniola pulsing at night. Otherwise, a series of weak frontal 
troughs will sweep eastward across the waters between northeast 
Florida and Bermuda today and then again Mon through Wed.

$$
Ramos