979 AXNT20 KNHC 241037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat May 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 22W, from 00N to 15N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave from 03N to 11N between 10W and 27W. A tropical wave is along 48W, from 00N to 14N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 40W and 59W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 11N16W and extends southwestward to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between 27W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high pressure centered in the SE Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds over the majority of the E Gulf E of 87W. West of 87W, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are ongoing along with 3-4 ft seas. Slight seas to 3 ft are present across the eastern basin. For the forecast, high pressure will develop across the northeast Gulf through Wed, supporting moderate to fresh SE wind across the western half of the Gulf. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Wed night as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to near gale-force trades are across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds being off the coast of Colombia. These winds are a result of a strong pressure gradient between a 1008 mb Colombian Low and a broad surface ridge in the subtropical Atlantic extending southward to the northern basin. Seas are 8-11 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas, except in the NW Caribbean N of 18N where trades are gentle to moderate and seas are 2-3 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed night. Pulsing near gale force winds are likely offshore Colombia at night through Sun. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the majority of the remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night. A tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic waters Sat and enter the E Caribbean Sat night into Sun, thus enhancing the winds and seas over the tropical Atlantic waters mainly east of the Windward Islands through Mon. The wave is forecast to move across Puerto Rico by Sun evening and across Hispaniola Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves. The subtropical Atlantic waters continue under the influence of a broad ridge associated with the Azores High, which extends into the tropics near 15N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a tropical wave with axis near 48W supports fresh winds between 40W and the Lesser Antilles as well as the subtropical waters from 20N to 23N between 40W and the approaches of the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail between the W coast of Africa and 20W to the N of 20N. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere E of 65W. Seas in the vicinity of the tropical wave near 48W are 7-8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will continue to build westward today as a surface trough just SE of Bermuda continues to weaken. The ridge will then stay in place through the middle of next week, supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 25N, except for locally strong winds just north of Hispaniola pulsing at night. Otherwise, a series of weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda today and then again Mon through Wed. $$ Ramos