796 
AXNT20 KNHC 240438
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat May 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0437 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 22W, from 15N southward, moving west at 
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the
wave axis and Monsoon Trough.

A tropical wave is along 46W, from 14N southward, moving west at 
15-20 kt. Isolated convection is depicted along the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 11N16W 
and extends southwestward to 06N27W. The ITCZ extends from
05.5N27.5W to 03N44W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection 
is from 01N to 07N along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf is supporting
light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf, while gentle to moderate 
winds prevail over the rest of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
are pulsing north of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern
Bay of Campeche due to the gradient between the aforementioned 
high pressure and a trough analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Seas of 1 to 3 ft are present across the basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure will develop across the northeast
Gulf through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh SE 
wind across the western half of the Gulf. NE to E winds will pulse
to fresh to strong speeds along and just north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Wed night as a trough
develops inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of 
Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico are 
expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of 
Campeche and western Gulf through the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The latest satellite scatterometer pass detected fresh to strong 
trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. 
These winds are a result of a strong pressure gradient between the
Colombian Low and high pressure in the NE Gulf of America and 
subtropical Atlantic. Seas are 8-10 ft within these winds. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas, 
except in the NW Caribbean where trades are gentle to moderate and
seas are 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is 
noted in the far SW Caribbean, from the coast of Panama north to 
12N and west of 80W to Costa Rica.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue
to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the 
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed night. 
Pulsing near gale force winds are likely off Colombia at night 
through Sun. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the 
majority of the remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to 
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night. A tropical wave 
will approach the tropical Atlantic waters Sat and enter the E 
Caribbean Sun, thus enhancing the winds and seas over the tropical
Atlantic waters mainly east of the Windward Islands through Mon 
morning. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves. 

A surface trough extends from 31N65.5W to the northern Bahamas 
near 26N79W. Isolated showers are noted along the surface trough.
No other significant features are analyzed across the tropical 
Atlantic. Light to gentle trades prevail north of 24N, and gentle 
to moderate trades south of 20N. Trades are locally fresh from 07N
to 22N between the Cape Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. 
Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers will persist 
through tonight along a trough reaching from SW Bermuda near 
30N65W to just north of Andros Island. The trough will dissipate 
through tonight, allowing the Atlantic subtropical ridge to extend
westward and strengthen through the middle of next week. This 
pattern will support moderate to fresh winds south of 25N, except 
for locally strong winds just north of Hispaniola pulsing at 
night. Otherwise, a series of weak frontal troughs will sweep 
eastward across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda 
tonight through Sat and then again Mon through Tue. 

$$ KRV