000 AXNT20 KNHC 211041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed May 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 29W, to the south of 12N, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted near the wave axis, from 01.5N to 06N between 22W and 33W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 11N15W and extends southwestward to near 02.5N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N33W to the mouth of the Amazon Basin near 00N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 02W and 18W, and scattered moderate from 04N to 10N between 38W and 61W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Fair weather persists across the Gulf basin this morning, ahead of a weak cold front that has moved near the southeast Texas coast. Weak high pressure located just east of the Bahamas extends a ridge NW and into Georgia and north Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh southeasterly winds across much of the Gulf W of 86W, with gentle winds across the Texas coastal waters. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft except 5 to 6 ft north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh winds prevail. Gentle anticyclonic winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail E of 86W. Scattered light showers are occurring across the Louisiana and Texas coastal waters, ahead of the front. Smoke intensity from agricultural fires over Mexico in recent days has increased to medium over the western Gulf, while light smoke density prevail across the rest of the basin W of 86W. For the forecast, the weak ridge extending into the Gulf this morning will shift slowly eastward through tonight, and allow the cold front to sink southward into the northern Gulf coastal waters today, stall, then lift northward and dissipate through Wed night. Another weak front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu through Thu night then dissipate. High pressure is expected to move into the NE Gulf this coming weekend and dominate the basin. SE winds will freshen in the western Gulf starting Sat night as a new frontal systems moves into west Texas. E winds will pulse fresh to locally strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak 1016 mb high pressure is centered E of the Bahamas near 72W, and extends a weak ridge between Florida and 65W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the Colombia low is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the NW Caribbean, except from the the Gulf of Honduras northward, where fresh to strong E to SE winds are present. Seas are mainly in the 3 to 6 ft range, except for the offshore waters of Colombia and Venezuela, and across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Seas in the lee of Cuba are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring south of 11N between NW Colombia and Costa Rica. Widely scattered showers and a few ml thunderstorms are depicted across the southeast Caribbean, supported by a broad upper trough lingering across the eastern basin. Of note: Casablanca Weather Station in Havana sets new May Temperature Record. On Tue afternoon, the weather station recorded a maximum temperature of 38.0 degrees Celsius, setting a new record for the month of May. This surpasses the previous record of 37.3 degrees Celsius, which was set on May 19, 2024. Abundant sunshine and S winds helped to reach this temperature. For the forecast, the weak ridge north of the basin will shift slowly eastward through tonight, then high pressure across the NE Atlantic will build a modest ridge north of the Caribbean basin Thu night through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds in the central Caribbean will gradually strengthen and pulse to fresh to strong this evening through the upcoming weekend and gradually expand westward to Nicaragua. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic will freshen Fri into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1016 mb high pressure is located E of the Bahamas near 26N62W. A pair of frontal troughs extend SW to NE and into the central Atlantic, N of 23N between 64W and 53W. A deep layered trough extends from the central Atlantic north of the area S-SW to the northern Caribbean, and is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of these two frontal troughs to 50W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail W of 65W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the lee of the Bahamas and in the Florida coastal waters. Further east, a 1030 mb high pressure is located SE of the Azores near 36N30W and dominates the remainder of the Atlantic to Africa. Moderate to fresh winds are present east of 40W, while fresh to strong winds prevail north of 18N and east of 25W. Gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range W of 60W, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere. Hazy skies in Africa dust prevails off of NW and western Africa to near 25W. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure centered just E of the Bahamas will shift slowly eastward through tonight, while a frontal trough across the NE zones will also shift eastward with moderate to fresh westerly winds ahead of it. High pressure across the NE Atlantic will then build a modest ridge along about 26N into the Bahamas Thu through the weekend. The pressure gradient south of the high pressure will strengthen by the end of the week, allowing for fresh winds S of 22N. A pair of frontal troughs will move eastward across the northern waters later in the week and upcoming weekend. $$ Stripling