213 
AXNT20 KNHC 201606
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue May 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, to the south of 15N, 
moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is noted in the
monsoon trough/ITCZ section. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 11N15W 
and extends southwestward to near 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from
07N18W to 04N25W. It resumes W of the tropical wave near 03N29W to
00N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 08N between 20W and 40W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from South Florida to near Houston Texas. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over 
central Texas and Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds W
of 86W, with gentle to moderate winds E of 86W. Seas are in the 
4-6 ft range W of 86W, and 2-4 ft E of 86W. 

For the forecast, the current synoptic setup will maintain 
moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western 
Gulf through today, and moderate winds over the eastern Gulf. A 
weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf tonight, stall, 
then lift north and dissipate through Wed night. Another weak 
front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu through Thu night then 
dissipate. High pressure is expected to move into the NE Gulf this
coming weekend and dominate the basin. E winds will pulse fresh 
to locally strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula 
each afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops
daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from agricultural fires
in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky 
conditions across the western Gulf through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Weak high pressure is centered just E of the Bahamas. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and the Colombia low
along with the EPAC monsoon trough is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh winds across the Caribbean waters. Seas are mainly 
in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the central and 
western Caribbean pulsing to strong near the Gulf of Honduras will
prevail through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong in the south- 
Central Caribbean Wed night, then spreading to offshore Nicaragua 
by the end of the week. Seas will build to rough as a result. 
Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic 
will freshen somewhat by the end of the week into the weekend. 
Seas will build locally to rough in the Tropical N Atlantic this 
weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to 
moderate winds are over the waters W of 60W, with moderate winds 
prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range W of 60W, and 
5-8 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will drift NE 
and lift north of the area through early Thu, while the high 
pressure to its west drifts eastward. This pattern will support 
gentle to moderate winds except pulsing to moderate to fresh at 
times in the northern waters with a pair of passing frontal 
troughs. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh south of 22N by the
end of the week into the weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens there. Slight to moderate seas will prevail, lowest near 
the Bahamas, and locally to rough at times near 31N.

$$
AL