628 AXNT20 KNHC 200451 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue May 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0451 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave continues to move west at 15 kt across the tropical Atlantic. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 09N and is along about 24.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 23W and 29W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 10N14W along the coast of Guinea and extends southwestward to near 06.5N20.5W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W and continues westward to near 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08.5N between 16W and 20W, and south of 07.5N west of 44.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak 1015 mb high pressure offshore of Tampa Bay, Florida extends a ridge westward across the N Gulf coast. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure across northern Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf west of 90W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are found north of the Yucatan Penninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere over the basin. Seas across the Gulf range from 4-7 ft to the west of 88W and 1-4 ft east of 88W. No significant deep convection is depicted at this time. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions over the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, weak high pressure located just offshore of Tampa Bay extends a ridge westward across the northern Gulf coast. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressure in Texas and in eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. A weak cold front will move into the N Gulf Tue night, stall, then lift north and dissipate Wed night. Yet another weak front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu night into Fri. High pressure should prevail this coming weekend. E winds will pulse fresh to strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky conditions across the west central and SW Gulf through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered just northeast of the Bahamas extends a weak ridge across the waters north of the basin, while a surface trough extends from the SW N Atlantic to north of the Leeward Island. This weather pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds across the basin, except for fresh to strong winds north of Honduras, and fresh winds north of Venezuela. Seas across the Caribbean are in the 2 to 5 ft range. Isolated moderate convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean south of 14N. For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of the Bahamas extends a weak ridge across the waters north of the basin, while a surface trough extends from the central Atlantic along 57W to north of the Leeward Island. This pattern will yield generally moderate winds across the basin west of 75W through Tue, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds pulsing during the late afternoon through night near the Gulf of Honduras throughout the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin E of 75W through Tue. The surface trough will weaken and drift northeast during the next few days, and gradually allow high pressure to strengthen north of the basin. Look for increasing trades and building seas across the eastern part of the basin beginning Tue night, expanding westward to the central part of the basin by Wed night, reaching the coast of Nicaragua by the end of the week. Meanwhile, moderate trades and seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic, freshening by the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep-layered low pressure extends from 27N50W southwestward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 12N between 45W and 60W. An associated surface trough also persists along 57W-58W, while weak high pressure is just northeast of the Bahamas. Due to the very weak pressure gradient in the area, winds are moderate or weaker west of 55W. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 55W south of 29N, and are 4-6 ft west of 55W north of 29N. Farther east, a 1026 mb Azores High is centered near 32N34W. A moderate pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing moderate to fresh NE to E trades south of 28N east of 55W, except fresh to strong NE winds along the Western Sahara/Morocco coasts and between the Canary Islands. Seas are 6-8 ft east of 60W, except 3-6 ft north of 26N between 20W-55W. For the forecast west of 55W, deep-layered low pressure extends from 27N50W southwestward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 12N between 45W and 60W. An associated surface trough also persists along 57W-58W, while weak high pressure is just northeast of the Bahamas. This middle to upper-level low pressure will gradually weaken through Tue as it shifts eastward, allowing for the surface trough to weaken and shift NE, and showers and thunderstorms shifting eastward ahead of it. High pressure located to the west of the trough and northeast of the Bahamas will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the area west of the trough through the period, except for moderate westerly winds north of 28N due to a passing weak frontal trough. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night for the next few days. Fresh SW to W winds and building seas are expected over the NW portion of the area and northeast of the Bahamas Tue night and Wed, ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern United States coast Wed night. The front will reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by late Thu, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N68W to just E of the NW Bahamas by Sat morning. $$ KRV