646 AXNT20 KNHC 192220 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue May 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave continues to move away from the coast of West Africa. The low amplitude wave extends from 03N to 09N and is along about 23W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 24W and 29W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 10N14W along the coast of Guinea and extends southwestward to near 07N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N16W to 06N21W, where it is broken by the tropical wave. The ITCZ then redevelops at 05N27W and continues westward to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 17W and 20W, and south of 08N west of 43W. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean, and is aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection across the SW Caribbean south of 12N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure near Tampa, Florida extends a ridge westward across the N Gulf coast. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure across northern Mexico is supporting fresh to strong SE winds across much of the Gulf west of 90W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere over the basin. Seas across the Gulf range from 4-7 ft to the west of 88W and 1-4 ft east of 88W. No significant deep convection is occurring this afternoon. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions over the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high pressure ridge and lower pressure in Texas and in eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. A weak cold front will move into the N Gulf Tue night, stall, then lift north and dissipate Wed night. Yet another weak front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu night into Fri. High pressure should prevail this coming weekend. E winds will pulse fresh to strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky conditions across the west central and SW Gulf through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered just northeast of the Bahamas extends a weak ridge across the waters north of the basin, while a surface trough extends from the SW N Atlantic to near Puerto Rico. The weak pressure gradient is forcing only gentle to moderate trades this afternoon. Seas are 2-5 ft across the Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean south of 12N. For the forecast, moderate winds will continue across the basin west of 75W through Tue, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds pulsing during the late afternoon through night near the Gulf of Honduras throughout the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin E of 75W through Tue. The surface trough north of Puerto Rico will weaken and drift northeast during the next few days, and gradually allow high pressure to strengthen north of the basin. Look for increasing trades and building seas across the eastern part of the basin beginning Tue night, expanding westward to the central part of the basin by Wed night, reaching the coast of Nicaragua by the end of the week. Meanwhile, moderate trades and seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic, freshening by the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep-layered low pressure extends from 25N60W across Puerto Rico and into the NE Caribbean, and is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 27N between 55W and 62W. An associated surface trough also persists in this same area, while high pressure is just northeast of the Bahamas. Due to the very weak pressure gradient in the area, winds are moderate or weaker west of 50W. Seas are 2-5 ft west of 50W north of 20N, and are 6-7 ft west of 50W south of 20N. Farther east, a 1025 mb Azores High is centered near 30N37W. A moderate pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing moderate to fresh NE to E trades south of 25N east of 50W, except fresh to strong NE winds along the Western Sahara/Morocco coasts and between the Canary Islands. Seas are 6-8 ft east of 50W, except 3-6 ft north of 25N between 20W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N-30N between 45W-52W in association with an upper level low. For the forecast west of 55W, the deep-layered low pressure will gradually weaken through Tue as it shifts eastward, allowing for the surface trough to weaken and shift NE, and showers and thunderstorms shifting eastward ahead of it. High pressure located to the west of the trough and east of the Bahamas will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the area west of the trough through the period, except for moderate westerly winds north of 28N due to a passing weak frontal trough. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night for the next few days. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SW to W winds and building seas are expected over the NW portion of the area and northeast of the Bahamas Tue night and Wed, ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern United States coast Wed night. The front will reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by late Thu, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N68W to just E of the NW Bahamas by Sat morning. $$ Landsea/Lewitsky