000 AXNT20 KNHC 191748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon May 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave continues to move away from the coast of West Africa. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 09N and is along about 22W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 20W and 25W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits to coast of western Africa near 9.5N13.5W and extends southwestward to near 05N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N17W to 04N20W, where it is broken by the tropical wave. The ITCZ then redevelops at 04N26W and continues westward to the far northern coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 10W and 52W, and south of 10N between 52W and 61W. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean, and is aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean south of 12N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak high pressure ridge extends from a 1017 mb high located over the Florida Big Bend into the eastern Gulf. The pressure between this ridge, lower pressure across northern Mexico, a surface trough in the SW Gulf, as well as deepening low pressure in the central US is supporting fresh to strong SE winds across much of the Gulf W of 90W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are observed from 87-90W and S of 26N, with moderate or weaker E to SE winds elsewhere in the basin. Seas across the Gulf range from 4-7 ft to the W of 88W, to 1-4 ft E of 88W. Some isolated showers are noted in the central Gulf embedded in the fresh to strong SE flow with deep-layer moisture. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions over the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, weak high pressure located just north of Tampa, Florida extends a ridge westward across the northern Gulf coast. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressure in Texas and in eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. A weak cold front will move into the N Gulf Tue night, stall, then lift north and dissipate Wed night. Yet another weak front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu night into Fri. High pressure should prevail this coming weekend. E winds will pulse fresh to strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky conditions across the west central and SW Gulf through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level trough is across the Atlantic, north of the Leeward Islands, and extends SW into the E Caribbean. Converging low level winds to the south and east of the surface trough are leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters east of 68W this morning. All other convection in the basin is associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough, please see that section for details. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean east of 75W as well as in the Gulf of Honduras, with seas of 4 to 6 ft across these areas. Gentle to moderate trades and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of the Bahamas extends a weak ridge across the waters north of the basin, while a surface trough extends from the SW N Atlantic to near Puerto Rico. This pattern will yield generally moderate winds across the basin west of 75W through Tue, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds pulsing during the late afternoon through night near the Gulf of Honduras throughout the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin E of 75W through Tue. The surface trough north of Puerto Rico will weaken and drift northeast during the next few days, and gradually allow high pressure to strengthen north of the basin. Look for increasing trades and building seas across the eastern part of the basin beginning Tue night, expanding westward to the central part of the basin by Wed night, reaching the coast of Nicaragua by the end of the week. Meanwhile, moderate trades and seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic, freshening by the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough axis extends from the Anegada Passage to near 25N60W, with a surface trough also analyzed from 28N61W to 20N67W. The interactions between these features support widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in a region from 13N to 27N between 55-62W. Another area of scattered showers, associated with convergent surface winds and an upper-level shortwave trough along 30W, is observed from the Cabo Verde Islands to near 31N between 20-29W. All other convection in the Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave, the monsoon trough, and the ITCZ. Please refer to those sections for details on convection in the Atlantic near and south of 10N. A 1025 mb high centered near 29N38W extends a broad ridge across the Atlantic between the Azores and the aforementioned surface trough. Recent scatterometer data indicates two areas of fresh to strong NE winds: one between the Canary Islands and the Moroccan coast near Agadir, and the other from 18-24N and E of 20W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to NE winds prevail across much of the Atlantic from 06-20N between the W coast of Africa and 58W. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker winds prevail. Moderate seas prevail across the majority of the Atlantic E of 70W, with slight seas analyzed to the W of 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, deep-layered low pressure extends from 25N60W across Puerto Rico and into the NE Caribbean, and is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 27N between 55W and 62W. An associated surface trough also persists in this same area, while high pressure is just northeast of the Bahamas. This middle to upper-level low pressure will gradually weaken through Tue as it shifts eastward, allowing for the surface trough to weaken and shift NE, and showers and thunderstorms shifting eastward ahead of it. High pressure located to the west of the trough and east of the Bahamas will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the area west of the trough through the period, except for moderate westerly winds north of 28N due to a passing weak frontal trough. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night for the next few days. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SW to W winds and building seas are expected over the NW portion of the area and northeast of the Bahamas Tue night and Wed, ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern United States coast Wed night. The front will reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by late Thu, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N68W to just E of the NW Bahamas by Sat morning. $$ Adams