641 AXNT20 KNHC 151815 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu May 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1024 mb centered just northwest of Madeira Island and relatively lower pressures in NW Africa has initiated gale-force N to NE winds in the eastern portion of the Meteo-France marine zone of Agadir. These conditions are forecast to last until 16/00 UTC tonight. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N30W to 02N40W to 02N45W and to near 04N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W-24W, from 04N to 06N between 36W-44W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-29W and between 37W-42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad area of weak high pressure is over the eastern Gulf as a 1016 mb high center is analyzed near 27N83W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure in the central United States is allowing for fresh to strong SE to S winds to exist over the NW Gulf while moderate to fresh E to SE winds are elsewhere, except E of 86W, where light to gentle E to SE winds are present S of 27N, and light to gentle winds S to SW winds are N of 27N. Latest buoy observations indicate mostly seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the west-central Gulf and 5 to 7 ft over the NW Gulf. Lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the eastern Gulf. Dry sinking air aloft is suppressing any deep For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SE winds will pulse over the northwestern Gulf of America into this evening as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure over the eastern basin and low pressure in the central United States. Through this weekend, moderate to fresh SE winds and generally moderate seas are expected W of 90W, with gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and slight seas expected east of 90W. Pulsing fresh to locally strong E winds are likely each afternoon and evening N of the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between a broad area of high pressure over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean basin and northern South America is maintaining moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle NE to E winds are N of 18N and W of 75W, including the Windward Passage. Both latest altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations reveal seas of 4 to 6 ft over most of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft are present from 11N to 15N between 68W and 80W. Lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are N of 18N W of 75W, including the Windward Passage. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms confined to the southwestern Caribbean S of 12N between the coast of Colombia and 81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are S of 12N and W of 81W to along some of the coastal sections of Costa Rica and Panama. Similar activity is seen from 12N to 13N W of 81W to inland some areas of southern Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and night through this weekend. Elsewhere, a mixed NE and SE swell will support rough seas across the tropical Atlantic waters and passages into the eastern Caribbean through this weekend. Otherwise, pulsing moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri as the subtropical ridge prevails over the central Atlantic. The ridge will drift southeastward this weekend, supporting mainly moderate winds across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 31N35W southwestward to 28N43W and to 27N51W is analyzed along 28N between 36W-62W. Scattered showers are occurring within 90 nm of the boundary mainly E of 45W. Convergent southerly winds are helping to sustain scattered moderate convection to the SW of Bermuda, north of about 28N and between 64W and 75W. This activity is further being aided by a broad mid to upper-level trough that is shifting eastward across the western Atlantic. Abundant dry sinking air following in behind this trough is noted in water vapor imagery. An area of numerous showers and thunderstorms is evident S of of 09N between 49W and 53W. A weak low-level disturbance is in this general area. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are evident near the surface trough, north of 25N between 35W and 65W. A surface ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1021 mb high near 30N27W to beyond the central Bahamas. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft from 22N to 28N between 35W and 65W. Farther west, gentle to moderate SE to SSW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are present north of 22N and west of 65W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with seas of 6 to 9 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will pulse south of 25N and east of 75W, including areas just offshore of the Greater Antilles, through Fri as the subtropical ridge prevails over the central Atlantic. The ridge will drift southeastward this weekend, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across this region into next week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will develop offshore of central and northern Florida tonight, and winds are expected to pulse through this weekend as troughing prevails over the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the waters. $$ Aguirre