000 AXNT20 KNHC 141016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed May 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the boundaries mainly W of 18W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate to strong convection across the SW Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge reaches westward from a 1014 mb high at the east- central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the central Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident at the western Gulf, with strongest wind speeds in the NW portion of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern Gulf should steadily strengthen through today, then drift eastward towards the Florida Peninsula where it will prevail through the weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient against building lower pressure over the far western Gulf, and will lead to moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface ridge across the western Atlantic near 25N continues to support a trade-wind regime for most of the Caribbean Basin. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the SW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft dominate the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen over the eastern, north-central and southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail at the northwestern basin. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with lower pressures over South America Bermuda will continue to support strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia through tonight along with rough seas. The high pressure will lift N and then SE towards the central Atlantic subtropical waters, which will keep mainly moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern Caribbean tonight through Thu night, and gentle to moderate easterly winds the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters and passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras from tonight through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent winds east of a surface trough over southern Florida are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwest Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Caribbean Sea sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1024 mb high at the central Atlantic at 30N33W to beyond the central Bahamas. These features are supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft north of 25N between 35W and 68W. To the west, moderate to fresh SSE to SSW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are found north of 25N between 68W and the Florida east coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles/Bahamas, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will prevail across the area, with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas. Pulsing fresh E winds are expected each afternoon and evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week, including across the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean. $$ ERA