754 AXNT20 KNHC 121139 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon May 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 00N50. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 08N and west of 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the SE Gulf, especially across the Florida Straits and southern Florida. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted behind the front in the northern Gulf. Generally dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the Gulf waters. For the forecast, the front will drift eastward in the next couple of days, exiting the basin on Tue. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front. Farther west, a trough is moving across the northern Gulf of America, supporting pulsing moderate to fresh W to NW winds across the northern basin today into Tue. The trough will also induce a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, high pressure will build across the Gulf by midweek. A strengthening pressure gradient between deepening low pressure in the central United States and the aforementioned high will support fresh to locally strong S to SE winds offshore of Texas and Mexico Tue through late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E winds in the central Caribbean, with winds locally near gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are in the E Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the south-central to SW Caribbean, and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 6 ft dominate the NW Caribbean. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across much of the Caribbean W of 77W in advance of a cold front currently draped across the Gulf of America and the Yucatan Peninsula, aided by upper-level diffluent flow as well as a surface trough located over the NW Caribbean, which extends from 19N86W southward into Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas are expected across much of the central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, into early Wed as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela each afternoon and night. Farther east, pulsing moderate to fresh E winds and locally rough seas are likely across the Atlantic Passages into the eastern Caribbean through midweek. Looking ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish by late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 10N58W to 18N58W, and is acting to develop scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in an area from 14-17N between 52-56W. Scattered showers are also noted from 16-27N and E of 33W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates much of the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 33N43W. The associated ridge reaches the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles and the NE Caribbean. Under the influence of this system, moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 24N along with moderate seas. E winds are fresh to strong in an area from 10-19N between 48-61W, as well as offshore Guyana. To the N of 24N, gentle to moderate trades prevail along with seas of 3-6 ft, with the exception of areas W of 76W, where recent scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh SE winds increasing in advance of a cold front currently over the Gulf of America. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across much of this region, with scattered moderate convection occurring through the Florida Straits. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected to develop tonight and continue into Tue offshore of central and northern Florida as a strengthening pressure gradient develops between high pressure in the western Atlantic and low pressure in the southeastern United States. A cold front associated with the low pressure system is slated to move offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Tue and meander through midweek, before weakening and lifting northeastward. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N this week. Locally rough seas in NE swell will impact the waters near the Lesser Antilles and across the passages into the Caribbean through late week. $$ Delgado