000 AXNT20 KNHC 110535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun May 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N19W to 01N30W to 01S49W. Scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to 03N between 12-21W, and from the Equator to 05N between 33-47W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure centered over SE Mississippi to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds near gale force in the strongest thunderstorms, are ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail across the eastern Gulf ahead of the front, with 3-5 ft seas. West of the front, moderate to fresh NW winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail, with the exception of fresh NW to N winds in the Bay of Campeche where seas are 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, a stationary front currently extending from the western Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula will meander eastward through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected near and to the east of the front, leading to strong and erratic winds and rapidly building seas near convection. Moderate to fresh N and moderate seas in the Bay of Campeche will quickly diminish tonight. Pulsing moderate to fresh W-NW winds will occur behind the cold front across the western Gulf into Sun. Farther east, pulsing fresh to strong S to SE winds are expected east of the front through Sun as the pressure gradient increases with building high pressure in the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, the front is slated to exit the basin early next week, allowing high pressure to build in the Gulf of America. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore northern Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where winds are blowing from the E and SE due to the presence of a frontal boundary in the Gulf of America. Moderate seas prevail across the basin, except for the south-central Caribbean where seas are locally 8-9 ft, and offshore Cuba where seas are 2-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the NW Caribbean W of 84W ahead of a frontal boundary draped across the Gulf of America and the Yucatan Peninsula. More isolated moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean S of 11N, in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trade winds will occur across the central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, this weekend through early next week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and building high pressure to the north. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Building rough seas will occur in tandem with the strong winds, with the highest seas expected near and to the west of the strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E-SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. Marine conditions will improve midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming from a 1033 mb high centered near 35N44W. As a result, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic E of 60W. Seas are locally 8-9 ft in an area N of 26N and E of 30W, resulting from remnant NW swell behind a dissipated cold front. To the W of 60W, gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4-7 ft prevail, with the exception of areas S of 25N and W of 70W where E winds are moderate to fresh and seas are 2-5 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds will affect the waters off Florida through Sun as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure in the western Atlantic and a complex low pressure system in the SE United States. Strong S to SE winds and locally rough seas are expected early next week offshore of central and northern Florida ahead of a cold front associated with the low pressure system. The cold front will enter the western Atlantic and lift northeastward by midweek. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected east of 65W through Sun, on the periphery of high pressure in the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds are then expected for areas south of 25N through the middle of next week. $$ Adams