165 AXNT20 KNHC 080837 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu May 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Meteo-France Gale Warning: Cyclonic winds at times to gale-force with severe gusts are forecast in the Irving High Seas Forecast zone. Large and dangerous seas of up to 18 ft may accompany this system, anchored by a 1005 mb occluded low centered near 34.5N29.5W. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09.5N13W and extends southwestward to 02.5N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02.5N23W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing from 01S to 07N between 00W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough. Similar convection is noted and displaced from 05N to 10N between 44W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Low pressure 1014 mb is centered near Dauphin Island, Alabama with a stationary front from the low to just SE of Louisiana to offshore Brownsville, Texas, continuing as a trough southward off Tamaulipas. Convection associated with these features has diminished somewhat during the past several hours with isolated to widely scattered showers noted near and SE of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere including on either side of the front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft west of 87W, except 2 to 4 ft south of 20N in the Bay of Campeche, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, except 2 ft or less in the eastern Gulf coastal waters. For the forecast, the front and low will remain nearly stationary through today, then begin to move SE across the Gulf waters by Fri morning, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Then, the cold front will extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sat morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front through Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some sections of the W and SE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of low pressure SSW of Bermuda continues to prevent the Bermuda High from building into the basin, and is maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean. This is resulting in gentle to moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean, except for localized fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras and fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of eastern Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of the basin, except 4 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and across the approach to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are ongoing offshore Colombia and Panama and in the SE Caribbean. A surface trough is analyzed across the far NE Caribbean with associated scattered showers E of 64W. For the forecast, pulsing east to southeast winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected N of Honduras at night through Sat evening. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are forecast over the remainder of the basin through Fri, including in the Tropical N Atlantic, before increasing this weekend as the Atlantic high pressure builds westward. As a result, winds will start to increase to fresh speeds in the central Caribbean and off Colombia Fri night, then to fresh to strong speeds Sat through the remainder of the upcoming weekend and into next week. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the eastern Caribbean through at least today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The pressure gradient between a 1012 mb low pressure centered near 26.5N67W with associated trough and high pressure located over the central Atlantic is supporting diminishing fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas north and east of the low center. Moderate to fresh winds are also west of the low and trough from 25N to 30N between the features and 70W. Scattered showers and tstms are E of this trough and another trough moving across the Leeward Islands, covering an area from 16N to 29N between 45W and 65W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is being intersected by a cold front that extends from 31N25W to 28N35W to 30N44W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and rough seas to 10 ft follow this front S of 31N, with higher values NE of the area including gales in the W quadrant of the low in Meteo- France's forecast area. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas, except slight seas off the SE U.S. coast. For the forecast west of 55W, the marine conditions associated with the SW N Atlantic low and trough will continue to affect the NE waters today before diminishing by Fri. The low pressure will meander near 27N between 65W and 70W over the next couple of days, and open up into a trough by Sat morning. A stationary front along and just offshore the southeastern U.S. coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm front today, then may slowly push offshore again at the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky