000
AXNT20 KNHC 040506
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun May 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends south-southwestward to 
05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to near the coast of Brazil 
at 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N and E
of 16W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from near the Alabama-Mississippi Border to
just N of Veracruz, Mexico. The pre-frontal trough that had been
impacting portions of the NE Gulf has dissipated this evening, and
associated showers and thunderstorms have ended. The only
convection in the basin is scattered and moderate in the western
Bay of Campeche due to low-level convergence from easterly flow
and the approaching cold front. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft follow the front, with mainly gentle E winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. The exception is some moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche that
moved offshore the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Light smoke 
from agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico cover the 
SW Gulf and central ahead of the front. 

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from northern Florida
to near Veracruz Sun evening, then stall and weaken from near 
Sarasota, Florida to the central Gulf at 27N90W Mon morning. 
Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the basin through early 
Mon, fresh to strong at night near the northern Yucatan, 
increasing to moderate to fresh over the western zones by Mon 
evening as high pressure builds over the SE United States, then 
fresh to strong there Mon night through mid-week. Winds will pulse
at moderate to fresh in the Straits of Florida through mid-week, 
and be gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf throughout the next 
several days. Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf late Wed 
night or early Thu. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern 
Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some sections of the western
Gulf, with the lowest reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, S of Jamaica, and S
of Hispaniola, otherwise gentle to moderate trades prevail, except
over the SW basin where light winds are present. Seas are 2 to 5
ft. No significant convection is occurring in the basin. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 
pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Tue 
night, Wed night and Thu night. Unsettled weather is expected to 
continue over most of the eastern Caribbean through the weekend 
and well into next week. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to 
moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through
the period, including in the Tropical N Atlantic.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layer low is weakening over the Central Atlantic, reflected
at the surface by a 1014 mb low near 22N50W and a trough extending
SW to around 16N58W. Any nearby convection has dissipated this
evening. There is still a broad area of moderate to fresh E winds
N of the low, N of 23N between 45W and 60W, generating seas of 6
to 8 ft. Offshore Florida, southerly winds have increased to fresh
in advance of a cold front approaching from the SE United States.
Elsewhere, ridging dominates the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high
pressure near 30N49, supporting gentle to moderate trades. Seas 
are generally 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the gradient between a trough that 
extends north of 27N near 55W and high pressure over the western 
Atlantic is allowing for fresh to locally strong northeast winds 
and moderate seas north of 27N and east of 60W. These conditions 
will gradually shift westward going into early next week as the 
trough drifts westward. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may 
approach then stall near the southeastern U.S. coast Sun through 
Mon, and lift back north as warm front around the middle of next 
week. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over 
the western waters through the rest of the weekend and into early 
next week. 

$$
Konarik