000 AXNT20 KNHC 022047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat May 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N16W to 08N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the lower Mississippi Valley. A weak trough is evident over the far southwest Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate SE breezes the eastern Gulf, and moderte to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf, although fresh to strong E winds may be pulsing off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Wave heights are 2 to 4 ft in the northeast Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thundestorms are active over the north- central Gulf near 27N90W. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat morning supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over most of the basin, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds in the NE Gulf. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche at night through early next week in association with a diurnal trough. Mainly moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected across the Straits of Florida through Tue. A weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf waters early Sat, and remain there on Sun before shifting east of the basin on Mon. High pressure will then build southward across the Gulf leading to mostly moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the forecast zones early next week, increasing to fresh to strong over the western Gulf by early Tue as the pressure gradient tightens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is only forcing generally gentle to moderate trades and 2 to 4 ft seas across most of the Caribbean today. The exceptions are fresh NE winds and 4 to 5 ft seas over the Windward Passage and off Colombia. Aside from the convection in the southwest Caribbean associated with the Pacific monsoon trough, no other significant deep convection is occurring today. For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds through the Windward Passage tonight. At the same time, fresh northeast winds are expected south of the Dominican Republic, mainly near Cabo Beata. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over most of the eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Mostly stationary 1011 mb low pressure continues to be centered near 25N50W, with numerous showers and thunderstorms active within 120 nm in the northeast quadrant of the low pressure. 1023 mb high pressure is centered west of Bermuda near 32N70W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 20N and west of 55W. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas to 8 ft are ongoing within 240 nm in the northeast semicircle of the low pressure. Elsewhere, the pattern is dominated by 1022 mb high pressure centered southwest of the Azores near 32N31W, supporting mostly moderate NE winds across the eastern Atlantic, with 5 to 8 ft seas in N swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will persist over the central Atlantic between 50W and 60W through Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas are expected over near the low pressure tonight and Sat due to the pressure gradient between the trough/low and high pressure to the north. The low should dissipate by Sun, and a remaining trough is forecast to drift westward over the forecast waters through at least early next week. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas will persist near the northern end of the trough axis affecting the waters north of 25N and east of 60W. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may approach then stall near the southeastern U.S. coast Sun and Mon. $$ Christensen