000 AXNT20 KNHC 252316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea at 10.5N14.5W and continues southwestward to 02.5N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02.5N23W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 05N between 10W and 27.5W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 03.5N between 31W and 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the west Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward across Georgia and N Florida and into the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds continue across much of the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida, where seas are 4 to 6 ft and possible to 7 ft in the Florida Current. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of the western Gulf where seas are also 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail elsewhere across the Gulf waters, with seas around 3 ft. Stable conditions aloft across the basin are producing mostly fair skies across the entire basin, except for a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms exiting extreme western Cuba and moving NW into the waters north of the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters the this weekend into early next week supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds over the east and central Bay of Campeche through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida through the period due to prevalent high pressure NE of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough continues across the E Caribbean waters, from Isla Margarita off of Venezuela northward across the extreme northwestern Leeward Islands and into the Atlantic near 23N60W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 300 nm either side of the trough, while scattered thunderstorms have developed S of the trough over Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across much of the Caribbean waters with seas of 2-4 ft. Fresh trade winds prevail across the south central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, where seas are 4 to 6 ft, Fresh E winds are also occurring in the lee of Cuba , where seas are 3-4 ft. For the forecast, a second surface trough across the Atlantic north of the Mona Passage is reducing the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low, and will support fresh to locally strong trade winds offshore Colombia through early Sat. However, winds elsewhere across east and central portions of the basin will be slightly lower than normal through the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through Tue night. Slight to moderate seas will prevail into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive 1028 mb high pressure centered just east of the Azores. The ridge is weakened by a pair of surface troughs, one from the NE coast of Hispaniola to near 30N58W, and the second across the eastern Caribbean to near 23N60W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity and east of these troughs, from 18N northward between 50W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are west of the troughs to 73W then become fresh E winds across the Bahamas and into S and central Florida waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this zone. East of the troughs, mostly fresh NE to E winds prevail east of 50W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Between 50W and the Caribbean trough, gentle to moderate E to SE winds generally prevail, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW Atlantic and a surface trough to the N of the Mona Passage will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through tonight. The trough will remain generally stationary and weaken through Sun. A frontal boundary will clip the northern forecast waters between 55W and 65W on Sat, bringing fresh to strong E winds and seas to around 8 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, late Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. $$ Stripling