000
AXNT20 KNHC 202305
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: 
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning along with very rough seas
for their AGADIR Marine Zone, through 22/0000 UTC. Please see the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo-France at 
website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 02N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate
convection south of 04N and between 20W and 33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A subtropical ridge centered between Bermuda and the US southeast
coast extends into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in moderate to
fresh easterly winds off northern Yucatan and the Florida Straits.
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered offshore the SE United States and a trough over the SW
and W Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds over much of the
Gulf early this week, along with moderate to rough seas. Conditions
will start to improve across much of the Gulf Tue as the area of 
high pressure moves further from the area and the pressure 
gradient loosens. One exception is off the NW Yucatan Peninsula 
where pulses of strong winds are expected as a diurnal trough 
moves into the waters. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A strong subtropical ridge positioned north of the area continues
to support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds 
across the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and 
also the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The
strongest winds and highest seas are found in the Windward
Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will
support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western 
Caribbean through Mon night. The high will then shift eastward 
which will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds through
the middle of the week. Large northerly swell impacting the Mona 
and Anegada passages will gradually subside through the middle of 
the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
will then prevail through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information 
about gale force winds at the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure system 
centered near 28N66W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are observed north of 22N and between 52W
and 63W. The pressure gradient between the strong ridge west of
Bermuda and the aforementioned low pres and trough result in 
fresh to strong N-NE winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, 
especially west of the surface trough. The strongest winds are 
occurring in the western semicircle of the low and also south of 
25N and west of 66W. Moderate to rough seas are noted in the SW 
North Atlantic, with seas peaking around 10 ft west of the low 
pres. 

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb
high pressure system centered SW of the Azores. This ridge forces
moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft west of 20W. 
A tighter pressure gradient near Africa allow for fresh to strong 
N-NE winds and seas of 6-11 ft north of 12N and east of 20W. 
Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will start to weaken Tue
while the high center moves further from the area and weakens. 
This will loosen the pressure gradient over the area, leading to 
improving conditions into the middle of the week. The trough will 
drift westward while dampening out the second half of the week.

$$
Delgado