000 AXNT20 KNHC 202305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Apr 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2255 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning along with very rough seas for their AGADIR Marine Zone, through 22/0000 UTC. Please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection south of 04N and between 20W and 33W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A subtropical ridge centered between Bermuda and the US southeast coast extends into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in moderate to fresh easterly winds off northern Yucatan and the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered offshore the SE United States and a trough over the SW and W Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds over much of the Gulf early this week, along with moderate to rough seas. Conditions will start to improve across much of the Gulf Tue as the area of high pressure moves further from the area and the pressure gradient loosens. One exception is off the NW Yucatan Peninsula where pulses of strong winds are expected as a diurnal trough moves into the waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong subtropical ridge positioned north of the area continues to support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and also the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean through Mon night. The high will then shift eastward which will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds through the middle of the week. Large northerly swell impacting the Mona and Anegada passages will gradually subside through the middle of the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will then prevail through the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about gale force winds at the eastern Atlantic. A surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure system centered near 28N66W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed north of 22N and between 52W and 63W. The pressure gradient between the strong ridge west of Bermuda and the aforementioned low pres and trough result in fresh to strong N-NE winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of the surface trough. The strongest winds are occurring in the western semicircle of the low and also south of 25N and west of 66W. Moderate to rough seas are noted in the SW North Atlantic, with seas peaking around 10 ft west of the low pres. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores. This ridge forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft west of 20W. A tighter pressure gradient near Africa allow for fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-11 ft north of 12N and east of 20W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will start to weaken Tue while the high center moves further from the area and weakens. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the area, leading to improving conditions into the middle of the week. The trough will drift westward while dampening out the second half of the week. $$ Delgado