000
AXNT20 KNHC 201701
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Apr 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: 
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning along with very rough seas
for their AGADIR Marine Zone, through 21/0300 UTC. Please see the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo-France at 
website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then curves 
southwestward to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward 
from 02N19W to around 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted within 100 nm on either side of the boundaries mainly W of
16W. 

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is currently
over Panama and Costa Rica, causing scattered moderate convection
over the SW Caribbean S of 11N between 76W-82W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong ridge of high pressure extends southwestward from
northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle winds and seas 
of 2 to 4 ft are found at the northeastern Gulf. Elsewhere, fresh
to strong E winds with seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail, with the 
highest winds over the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high 
pressure centered offshore the SE United States and low pressure 
over Texas will lead to fresh to strong SE winds over much of the 
Gulf early this week, along with moderate to rough seas. 
Conditions will start to improve Tue as the gradient weakens, but 
pulses of strong SE winds will depart the NW Yucatan Peninsula 
nightly as a diurnal trough moves into the waters. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A 1028 mb Bermuda High sustains trade winds across much of the 
basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are
noted at the eastern basin. Strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas 
are evident in the central basin and near the Windward Passage. 
Mainly fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the high will then shift eastward which will 
loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds through the middle
of the week. Large northerly swell impacting the Mona and Anegada
passages will gradually subside through the middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information 
about gale winds at the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1018 mb low 
pressure near 31N57W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate 
convection noted within 200 nm of the trough. The tight pressure 
gradient between these features and the Bermuda high is resulting 
in fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft between 55W 
and 74W. To the N of 23N and W of 74W, Gentle to moderate E winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. Farther east, widespread fresh E 
winds and seas of 6 to 9 prevail over much of the central and 
eastern tropical and subtropical waters, as they are dominated by 
flow from a strong high pressure centered N of the region near The
Azores. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between the 
trough and high pressure centered just NW of Bermuda will support 
fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas into Mon for the Atlantic 
waters E of 70W, as well as S of 25W, including the the Bahamas 
and Greater Antilles. The trough will weaken by Tue while the high
moves further from the area and weakens. This will loosen the 
pressure gradient over the area, leading to improving conditions 
into the middle of the week.

$$
ERA