195 AXNT20 KNHC 200536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Apr 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning along with very rough seas for their AGADIR Marine Zone, through 21/0000 UTC. Please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo- France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 02N23W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 02N23W across 01S35W to near the Amazon River Delta. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 33W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present south of the monsoon trough off the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A strong ridge of high pressure extends southwestward from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are found at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the north-central Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong E to SE winds with seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered offshore the southeastern United States and low pressure over Texas will cause fresh to strong SE winds over much of the Gulf into early next week, along with moderate to rough seas. Conditions will start to improve Tue as the gradient weakens but pulses of strong SE winds will depart the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly next week as a diurnal trough moves into the waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southwestern end of a surface trough is producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. A strong 1030 mb Bermuda High sustains trade winds across much of the basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are seen at the eastern and southwestern basin. Strong to near- gale NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin, and near the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh with locally strong E to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, including the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola. For the forecast, the aforementioned Bermuda High will support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean through Mon night before diminishing through the middle of next week. Near-gale force winds will pulse off Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas. Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages, before gradually subside through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the beginning about gale winds at the eastern Atlantic. A surface trough extends southwestward from a weak 1021 mb low pressure near 31N55W to the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near and up to 180 nm east of these features. Tight pressure gradient between a 1030 mb Bermuda High and these features is resulting in fresh to strong NNE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 11 ft, from 20N to 29N between 58W and the Great Bahama Bank/70W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from 29N to 31N and west of 70W. Farther east and southeast from 10N to 31N between 53W and 60W/Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft in mixed moderate to large swells exist. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are present from 06N to 31N between 35W and 53W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface trough/low and Bermuda High will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas into Mon for waters east of 70W and south of 25W, including the the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The trough will weaken by Tue, leading to improving conditions into the middle of next week. $$ Chan