000
AXNT20 KNHC 172359
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coast of 
Gambia at 13N17W and continues southwestward to 05N20W, where 
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N30W and to the 
coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure stretches from Mid-Atlantic region southwestward
to over the basin. The gradient between the high pressure and low 
pressure in the Plains is allowing for fresh to strong southerly
winds to exist in the far western Gulf. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with
these winds. Fresh wind are elsewhere, except for moderate winds 
in the north-central section, and light and variable winds in 
the NE Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere except 2 to 4 ft in the
north-central and NE Gulf sections. No significant deep 
convection is occurring this evening.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will pulse 
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of 
Campeche through this weekend as a trough develops daily and 
moves westward. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds will 
develop west of 90W tonight as a low pressure system strengthens 
in the central United States. By Fri, fresh to locally strong SE 
winds are expected across much of the basin, including through 
the Florida Straits, as the pressure gradient strengthens between
the aforementioned low and building high pressure over the 
western Atlantic. Seas will slowly build through this weekend, 
with rough seas possible near the strong winds by early Sat. 
Looking ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A moderate pressure gradient between high pressure off the
southeastern United States and low pressure of 1007 mb in
northwest Colombian Low is allowing for fresh to strong 
trades to be in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to 
moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in northeast 
to east swell in the southwestern Caribbean and 3 to 6 ft
elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft in the west-central section. 
Scattered showers are possible north of 15N between 65W and 
68W, otherwise no significant deep convection is occurring over 
the Caribbean this evening.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will 
support fresh to strong northeast winds across the central and 
western Caribbean tonight into early next week, including the 
Windward Passage and south of Cuba. Near-gale force winds may 
pulse off Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by 
rough seas. Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and 
Anegada passages in the northeastern Caribbean by late Sun. 
Looking ahead, winds and seas are expected to diminish starting 
Tue as the high pressure north of the area weakens. The 
weather pattern is expected to become unstable in the
northeastern Caribbean through the weekend as troughing sets 
up over that part of the area and while at the same time 
low-level convergence increases. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 29N65W, where it becomes 
stationary to 27N70W and to the central Bahamas. Satellite 
imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north 
of 29N between the front and a trough that extends from
31N55W southwestward to 26N62W and to near 23N68W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are seen within about 180 nm southeast
of the trough from 23N to 27N. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure 
gradient between high pressure of 1029 mb that is well north 
of the area at 34N40W and relatively lower pressure to the 
south is generally inducing moderate to fresh trades south of 
28N and east of 60W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are 
near the Canary Islands and Western Sahara along with seas 
of 8 to 10 ft. Seas are about 5 to 8 ft in mixed swell elsewhere
across the tropical N Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front 
will weaken as it slowly drifts southward through Fri as high
pressure builds in its wake. The stationary portion will weaken 
and dissipate by Fri night. A tightening pressure gradient 
between these features will support an expansive area of strong 
northeast to east winds and rough seas are expected Sat into Sun 
through the Bahamas and near the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas
will slowly diminish west of 65W early next week. Looking ahead,
a complex low pressure system may develop in the central 
Atlantic this weekend, producing fresh to strong northeast winds
and rough seas surrounding the low, east of 65W. 

$$
Aguirre