000 AXNT20 KNHC 171721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Apr 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of Gambia at 13N117W and extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring across the tropical Atlantic from 01N-04N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A dissipating stationary from extends from the Florida Straits to 24N87W. With ridging north of the Gulf, fresh S to SE winds are occurring in the W Gulf with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft in the W Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring this afternoon. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE winds will occur offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds will develop west of 90W today as a low pressure system strengthens in the central United States. By Fri, pulsing fresh to locally strong SE winds are expected across much of the basin, including through the Florida Straits, as the pressure gradient strengthens between the aforementioned low and building high pressure over the western Atlantic. Seas will slowly build through this weekend, with rough seas possible near the strong winds by early Sat. Looking ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient between high pressure off the SE United States and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong NE trades over the S central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 6-9 ft over the SW Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean this afternoon. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean tonight into early next week. The impacted areas include the Windward Passage and south of Cuba, and particularly off the coast of Colombia where near-gale force winds and rough seas are likely mainly at night. Looking ahead, large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages in the northeastern Caribbean by late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near Bermuda to 26N75W where it transitions to a stationary front to the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are present within 30 NM of the cold front. Farther east, a trough extends from 28N63W to 31N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in association with the trough north of 25N between 55W-67W. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient between a 1029 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 34N40W to lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh trades south of 28N and east of 60W. Winds near the Canary Islands and Western Sahara are NE fresh to strong with seas 8-10 ft. Elsewhere across the tropical N Atlantic seas are 4-8 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from east of Bermuda through the central Bahamas and into Florida Straits will slowly drift southward through Fri, and high pressure is expected to build in the wake of the front. A strengthening pressure gradient between these features will support widespread moderate to fresh NE winds, with localized strong winds, and rough seas north of the Greater Antilles late tonight through this weekend. Widespread strong E to NE winds and rough seas are expected Sat into Sun through the Bahamas and near the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas will slowly diminish west of 65W early next week. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system may develop in the central Atlantic this weekend, producing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas surrounding the low, east of 65W. $$ Landsea