021 AXNT20 KNHC 140450 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Apr 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and between 12W and 27W. GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the NE Gulf continues to dominate the basin, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas south of 23N and east of 94W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and slight to moderate seas are found west of 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure remains centered over the north-central Gulf generally providing for light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate southerly return flow over the far western Gulf. The high pressure will shift E to the western Atlantic by Mon, allowing for the gentle to moderate return flow to increase slightly before diminishing Tue. Winds will increase to fresh speeds Thu, except increasing to fresh to strong over the west- central Gulf Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean, resulting in showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis. Generally dry conditions are found in the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between the high pressure to the north and lower pressures in NW Colombia support fresh to strong easterly trade winds. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and off Nicaragua. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and rough seas off Nicaragua will diminish on Mon. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola through Tue as a high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong starting Mon and expand in coverage through Tue night. Pulses of strong winds will then continue in this area each night through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N61W to off NE Hispaniola. Scattered showers are occurring ahead of the frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front to 55W and north of 27N. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted behind the front to 72W and north of 27N. The 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 34N40W dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds and moderate seas are present east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N61W to 20N69W while high pressure continues to build on the wake of it. Fresh to strong winds are east of the front north of 25N along with rough seas. The front will weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W, then stationary to the eastern part of Hispaniola Mon night. The cold front portion will shift E of 55W on Tue while the stationary portion weakens to a trough and shift W. The next cold front may enter the NW waters Tue night with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas on either side of the front. This front will weaken over the central part of the area Thu, then become stationary over the eastern part Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds will prevail south of about 25N and west of 60W, including near and in the Windward Passage Fri along with rough seas east of the Bahamas. $$ Delgado