791 AXNT20 KNHC 131744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Apr 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coastal border of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ extends from 01N23W to near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of 06N and east of 28W. More scattered moderate convection is noted along the Equator between 40W and the far northern coast of Brazil. GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of America, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas across the majority of the basin. The exception is in the far west Gulf W of 95W, where SE winds are moderate to fresh due to the pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the Gulf and a surface trough inland over eastern Mexico. For the forecast, high pressure remains centered over the north- central Gulf generally providing for light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate southerly return flow over the far western Gulf. The high pressure will shift E to the western Atlantic by Mon allowing for the gentle to moderate return flow to increase slightly before diminishing. Tue. Winds throughout increase to mostly fresh speeds Thu and Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from SE Hispaniola to a 1009 mb low over N Colombia. A combination of this trough and divergence aloft supports scattered moderate convection over the far SW Caribbean W of 78W and S of 11N. Winds across the W Caribbean between 78W and 83W are from the NNE, sustained at fresh to strong speeds. Moderate to fresh trades persist across much of remaining the basin, with fresh to locally strong E to NE winds also occurring offshore NW Colombia due to the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high well north of the area, and the Colombian Low. Seas are 4-7 ft across the majority of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and rough seas off Nicaragua will continue today, then diminish on Mon. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola tonight through Tue as a high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong starting Mon and expand in coverage through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N64W and continues to 21N68W. Fresh to strong S to SE winds are observed via satellite-derived wind data from the front out to about 57W and N of 20N. Seas are 6-8 ft in this region. Moderate to fresh NW winds are found behind the frontal boundary, along with moderate seas. The rest of the basin is under the dominance of a 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 34N40W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N64W to 21N68W while high pressure is building in behind it. Fresh to strong winds are east of the front north of about 25N along with moderate seas. The front will weaken as it reaches from 28N55W, then stationary to the eastern part of Hispaniola Mon night. The cold front portion will shift E of 55W Tue while the stationary portion weakens to a trough and shift back to the W. The next cold front may enter the NW waters Tue night with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas on either side of the front. $$ Adams