000 AXNT20 KNHC 122346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Apr 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 01N26W to near 01S37W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 03S to 06N between 01W and 24W. GULF OF AMERICA... A 1023 mb high located just S of Louisiana extends a ridge across the entire basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds over the eastern half of the Gulf and light to moderate NE to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche and the far Gulf W of 96W. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Seas basin wide are 1-4 ft. For the forecast, moderate winds over the E Gulf will diminish through Sun. High pressure will build across the Gulf with moderate to fresh S return flow developing over the W Gulf Sun and Mon before diminishing. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level diffluent flow and the remnants of a former trough continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily affecting the adjacent waters of Haiti and the Windward Passage. Similar shower and thunderstorms activity is over the SW Caribbean offshore waters from 10N-15N between 75W-81W. The moderate pressure gradient between this area of low pressure and surface ridging extending from the Gulf of America extending to the NW Caribbean is allowing for the continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds off Nicaragua to near 80W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Mostly moderate to fresh north winds are over the NW Caribbean along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern Caribbean S of 16N with seas of 4 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds off Nicaragua will continue through the weekend before diminishing on Mon. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola Sun night through Tue as a high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend before strengthening by early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front is over the western Atlantic along a position from 31N75W to 29N78W. Ahead of the front, a trough extends from 31N73W to the northern Bahamas. Farther east, another trough extends from 30N67W to the Windward Passage. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers between 61W and 73W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are within this area N of 25N. The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that has a parent high of 1029 mb north of the area near 36N42W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are present in the tropics as well as the subtropical waters between 30W and 65W. Seas in these waters are in the moderate range. Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front over the NW waters will progress across the forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail on either side of the front north of 25N, reaching strong speeds E of the front and N of 29N by Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Another weak cold front may enter the NW waters Tue night with moderate to fresh winds on either side of the front. $$ Ramos