000 AXNT20 KNHC 082246 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Apr 09 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: An extensive set of N swell that continues propagating through the central Atlantic and toward the tropical waters is producing rough seas at 13-15 seconds north of 13N east of about 60W to the Canary Islands. The swell will decay below 12 ft through tonight W of 40W. To the east, very rough seas will accompany a low pressure area moving from the Azores to the Canary Islands on Wed, before subsiding into Thu. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front has pushed into the western Atlantic, and extends from near 31N75W to South Florida. The front is forecast to stall from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed evening. Favorable jet dynamics aloft will support the development of low pressure along the front northeast of the northern Bahamas by Wed afternoon. The tight gradient between the low pressure and higher pressure north of the area will support strong to near- gale force northeast winds with building seas north of 29N between 70W and 80W tonight into Wed night, with winds reaching gale- force Wed morning through Wed evening along with wave heights building to 15 ft. Winds and wave heights will diminish Wed night through Thu as the low pressure dissipates. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to the Equator at 30W and to near the coast of Brazil at 03N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A slow-moving cold front extends from South Florida to western Cuba. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh northwest to northwest winds in the wake of the front. Recent buoy observations show wave heights of 5 to 7 ft over the basin, except for slightly lower wave heights of 4 to 6 ft over the north-central Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the NW Gulf. Satellite imagery showers scattered showers and isolated small thunderstorms over the lower Straits of Florida to along and just inland the coast of Cuba. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move east of the region this evening, with conditions improving across the Gulf as high pressure builds south into the basin. A second, relatively weak, cold front will move through the Gulf Thu night through Fri. Fresh northwest to north winds will follow this front over the northeast Gulf Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A slow-moving cold front has entered the northwestern Caribbean extending from western Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras. No significant convection is occurring with this front. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates fresh to locally strong northwest to north winds behind the front. The data also depicts moderate to fresh trades over the south-central part of the basin, with embedded strong speeds within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia between 75W and 76W. Gentle to moderate east to southeast trades are present elsewhere over the sea. Both altimeter satellite data and buoy observations reveal moderate wave heights across the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will move across the rest of the northwestern Caribbean through Wed, then gradually dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border Thu. The fresh to locally strong northwest to north winds along with moderate to locally rough seas will follow the front before it dissipates. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the south- central Caribbean for the rest of the week, with locally strong winds pulsing off Colombia tonight. Farther east, large N swell will impact Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong north winds and building seas will follow the remnants of the front off the coast of Nicaragua late Fri into Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details regarding the upcoming gale warning north of the Bahamas and the large swell event in the central Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from near 31N75W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds southwest winds are within about 180 nm east of the front north of 26N. Wave heights are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh west to northwest winds are behind the front, where wave heights are 5 to 7 ft. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms along and within 60-120 nm southeast of the front north of 26N. In the eastern Atlantic, a weaker cold front stretches from 31N16W to 20N28W, then transitions to a stationary front to near 17N41W. A 1022 mb high center is over the central Atlantic at 29N52W, with associated broad ridging stretching eastward to near 20W and westward to near the central Bahamas. The related gradient is supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds elsewhere across the basin, except for gentle to moderate NW winds following the front in the eastern Atlantic. Large N swell covers much of the central and eastern Atlantic, as described in the Special Features section. Wave heights are generally 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move eastward through Wed, then gradually stall as low pressure forms along it just northeast of the Bahamas. The low will track northeast to east into late in the week before weakening while the front also dissipates. Northeast winds will develop north of the Bahamas tonight, and increase to gale force N of 28N between 70W and 80W Wed morning, then prevail through Wed evening. Very rough seas will build in the area of the gale winds. As the low moves away from the area and weakens Thu, conditions will improve. Looking ahead, a weaker front will move off the coast of Florida late Fri, followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. $$ Aguirre