000 AXNT20 KNHC 081721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Apr 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: N swell that continues propagating through the central Atlantic and toward the tropical waters is producing rough to very rough seas at 13-16 seconds north of 13N east of 60W to the Canary Islands. The swell will decay below 12 ft through tonight W of 40W. To the east, very rough seas will accompany a low pressure area moving from the Azores to the Canary Islands on Wed, before subsiding into Thu. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A front is moving off the northeast Florida coast this morning. The front will stall from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by late Wed. Favorable jet dynamics aloft will support the development of low pressure along the front northeast of the northern Bahamas by Wed afternoon. The tight gradient between the low pressure and higher pressure north of the area will support strong to near-gale force NE winds with building seas north of 29N between 70W and 80W tonight into Wed night, with winds reaching gale-force Wed morning into afternoon, and seas building to 14 ft. Winds and seas will diminish Wed night through Thu as the low pressure dissipates. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to near the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from 26N82W into Yucatan Channel. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front. Recent buoy observations showed 7 to 10 ft wave heights over the southwest Gulf, with mostly 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along and to the southeast of the front. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish today as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf in the wake of the cold front. A second, relatively weak cold front, is likely to move through the Gulf late Thu into Fri. Fresh NW to N winds will follow the front over the northeast Gulf Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A slow-moving cold front has entered the northwest Caribbean, analyzed along 86W and S of 22N. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front in the Gulf of Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds off the coast of Colombia, with moderate to fresh trade winds across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh SE winds were also noted off Honduras, with gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere across the Caribbean. Moderate seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will gradually dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border Thu. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front across the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean this afternoon through early Wed, then diminish. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the south-central Caribbean into late week, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia tonight. Farther east, large N swell will impact Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the remnants of the front off the coast of Nicaragua late Fri through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details concerning the upcoming gale warning north of the Bahamas and the large swell event in the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from near 31N76W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and scattered thunderstorms accompany the front mainly N of 28N. In the eastern Atlantic, another, weaker cold front reaches from 31N17W to 22N26W, then becomes stationary to 19N43W. A shear line continues from that point to 19N54W. 1022 mb high pressure is centered in between these features over the central Atlantic near 28N53W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds elsewhere across the basin, except for gentle to moderate NW winds following the front in the eastern Atlantic. Large N swell covers much of the central and eastern Atlantic, as described in the Special Features section. Wave heights are generally 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic front will move east into through Wed, then stall from Bermuda to eastern Cuba. Behind the front, strong NW winds will develop as low pressure forms along the front just NE of the Bahamas tonight, as as the low tracks NE, winds will increase to gale-force N of 28N between 70W and 80W. Very rough seas will build in the area of gales. Conditions will improve Thu as the low weakens and move NE of the area. Another front will move off the coast of Florida Fri night, followed by moderate to fresh winds. Farther east, large N swell impacting waters east of 60W will continue southward into the tropical Atlantic through tonight. $$ ERA