000 AXNT20 KNHC 080941 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Apr 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: N swell that continues propagating through the central Atlantic and toward the tropical waters is producing very rough wave heights of 12 to 16 ft at 13-15 seconds roughly north of 20N east of 50W to 30W near the Canary Islands. The swell will decay below 12 ft through Tue night west of 35W and south of 27N. Farther east, 12 to 14 ft wave heights will accompany a low pressure area moving from the Azores to the Canary Islands Wed and Wed night, before subsiding into Thu. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A front is moving off the northeast Florida coast this morning. The front will stall from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by late Wed. Favorable jet dynamics aloft will support the development of low pressure along the front northeast of the northern Bahamas by Wed afternoon. The tight gradient between the low pressure and higher pressure north of the area will support strong to near-gale force NE winds with building seas north of 29N between 70W and 80W late Tue night into Wed night, with winds reaching gale force Wed morning into afternoon, and seas building to 14 ft. Winds and seas will diminish Wed night through Thu as the low pressure dissipates. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 00N30W to near the coast of Brazil at 01N47W. to near the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A slow moving cold front extends from near Venice, Florida southwestward to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front. Recent buoy observations showed 7 to 10 ft wave heights over the southwest Gulf, with mostly 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along and to the southeast of the front. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish today as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf in the wake of the cold front. A second, relatively weak cold front, is likely to move through the Gulf late Thu into Fri. Fresh NW to N winds will follow the front over the northeast Gulf Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A slow-moving cold front entering the northwest Caribbean extends from along the east coast of Yucatan to near Tela in northwest Honduras. Clusters of thunderstorms are active along the front in the Gulf of Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds off the coast of Colombia, with moderate to fresh trade winds across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh SE winds were also noted off Honduras, with gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere across the Caribbean. Recent buoy and altimeter satellite passes show 5 to 8 ft seas across the eastern and central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will move across the northwest Caribbean through mid week, before stalling and dissipating from eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras late Thu. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front across the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean this afternoon through early Wed, then diminish. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the south- central Caribbean through at least mid-week, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia tonight. Farther east, large N swell will impact the waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands Tue night through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the remnants of the front off the coast of Nicaragua late Fri through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details concerning the upcoming gale warning north of the Bahamas and the large swell event in the central Atlantic. Strong winds, rough seas, and scattered thunderstorms accompany a cold front moving off the northeast coast of Florida this morning. In the eastern Atlantic, another, weaker cold front reaches from the Canary Islands to 19N40W. 1022 mb high pressure is centered in between these features over the central Atlantic near 30N55W. This pattern is supporting moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds elsewhere across the basin, except for gentle to moderate NW winds following the front in the eastern Atlantic. Large N swell covers much of the central and eastern Atlantic, as described in the Special Features section. Wave heights are generally 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, strong SW winds are ahead of and following a cold front moving off the northeast coast of Florida currently reaching from 31N79W to Cape Canaveral. The winds will diminish this afternoon as the front moves farther east, eventually stalling from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by late Wed. Low pressure will form along the front near the northern Bahamas tonight into Wed. This pattern will support strong to near- gale force NE winds with building seas north of 29N between 70W and 80W late late tonight into Wed night, with winds reaching gale force Wed morning into afternoon along with rough to very rough seas. Conditions will improve through Thu as the low pressure dissipates. Looking ahead, another weaker front will move off the coast of Florida Fri night, followed by moderate to fresh winds. Farther west, large N swell impacting waters east of 60W will continue southward into the tropical Atlantic through tonight. $$ Christensen