027 AXNT20 KNHC 070329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Apr 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Swell Event: Recent altimeter satellite data and Sofar buoy observations confirm very large swell continues to move across the central Atlantic toward the tropical waters. The large well is following a cold front currently reaching from a storm center northwest of the Azores to 31N26W to 24N40W to 26N60W. Wave heights up to 24 ft are observed near 31N40W, with higher values noted farther north. Wave heights in excess of 12 ft are evident north of 24N between 25W and 55W, with wave periods of 12 to 15 seconds. The leading edge of 12 ft seas will likely reach as far south as 18N by tonight, east of 50W. The swell will decay below 12 ft through Tue night across the central Atlantic, but wave heights in excess of 12 ft will persist over the eastern Atlantic in a combination of NW swell and short period waves due to the weakening low pressure center moving toward the Canary Islands. Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front extends from near Mobile Bay, Alabama to the central Bay of Campeche early this evening. An earlier scatterometer satellite data pass from this afternoon vividly displayed near gale to gale- force northwest to north winds west of the front south of 28N. Both altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations indicate seas of 8 to 12 ft with these winds, with higher seas of 9 to 14 ft over the SW Gulf. Gale-force winds will prevail off of Veracruz through midday Mon before diminishing. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to 02S30W to near the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 04N between 10W and 18W, and from 03S to 01S between 30W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of America. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. A cold front currently reaching from a storm center northwest of the Azores to 31N26W to 24N40W to 26N60W. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates strong to near-gale force SW winds within 90 nm east of the front north of 28N, and fresh to strong following the front east of 45W. In addition to the large swell described in the Special Features section, the leading edge of wave heights 8 ft or greater covers the waters north of 21N and east of 65W. Farther west, 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 29N68W. Fresh to locally strong S winds may be active off northeast Florida, between the high pressure and a cold front approaching from the west in the Gulf. Farther south, fresh to strong NE to E winds persist at the northern entrance to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted over the tropical Atlantic. Gentle to moderate breeze persist ahead of the front over the eastern Atlantic, except for fresh N winds off Senegal. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft outside the area of large NW swell. A strong late-season cold front extends from near Mobile Bay, Alabama to the central Bay of Campeche currently. Outside the area of gale force winds off Veracruz, strong to near-gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas cover the western Gulf west of the front. East of the front, a trough extending from Guatemala through the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas ahead of the front to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere east of the front, moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted in most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident near the front north of 25N. The moist southerly flow east of the front continues to support areas of sea fog across the north- central and northeast Gulf. For the forecast, the front will move slowly eastward, reaching from the western Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon morning, from near Marco Island, Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula Tue morning, then exit to the southeast of the basin by Tue evening. Strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front across most of the Gulf through Mon evening, before winds and seas diminish from west to east through Tue night. Behind the front, high pressure will settle across the northern Gulf Tue night through Thu to produce gentle breezes and slight seas in all but the southeast Gulf, where moderate NW swell will persist into early Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong trades persist off Colombia, Gulf of Venezuela, the Gulf of Honduras, and Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are evident elsewhere, except for gentle breezes along the southern coast of Cuba, and from Panama to Nicaragua. Wave heights are 7 to 10 ft over the southwest Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A few streamer-related showers and thunderstorms are noted west of Jamaica, but no significant thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will begin to diminish by Mon morning as high pressure north of the area begins to shift eastward. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across all but northwest portions of the basin through Thu as high pressure moves into the central Atlantic. A cold front is expected to reach the northwestern Caribbean Tue, and move slowly eastward, reaching from central Cuba to northeast Honduras Thu before stalling and dissipating. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will fill in behind the front through Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Large swell is impacting the central Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. In addition to the gale-force winds associated to the cold front described in the Special Features section, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are noted near the front covering the area north of 24N between 20W and 59W. Farther west, a 1023 mb high center is analyzed west-southwest of Bermuda near 30N75W. This pattern set-up supporting fresh to strong east winds near the approaches of the Windward Passage and north of Haiti and mostly fresh east to southeast winds through he Old Bahama Channel between Cuba and the Bahamas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are evident over the tropical Atlantic along with 6 to 8 ft seas. Farther east, fresh north winds and rough seas are noted off Senegal. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure southwest of Bermuda is supporting fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola and near the approaches to the Windward Passage, while fresh S to locally strong winds are off northeast Florida. High pressure will shift eastward through mid- week, allowing an approaching cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night into Tue. The front will generally stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas. $$ Christensen