000 AXNT20 KNHC 041710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Apr 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1030 mb located near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to near gale trade winds across the central Caribbean through Sat afternoon. Winds offshore of NW Colombia are expected to briefly increase to gale-force tonight, with peak seas there building to 13 or 14 ft. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the north-central Atlantic will move into the discussion waters south of 31N late Sat and reach from 31N40W to 29N55W by Sat evening. SW winds to gale force are likely within 90 nm ahead of the front north of 28N. Winds will diminish to below gale force by Sun morning as the front shifts southward. Looking ahead, even though the winds may gradually diminish, the front will be followed by large to very large NW swell that will envelop most of the Atlantic east of 60W through the middle of next week. This swell will produce seas to 20 ft and higher across the northeastern waters Sun through Mon. Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front will emerge off of the Texas coast Sat night. Fresh to near gale N winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front over the western Gulf Sun and Mon with northerly gales possible near Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz by late Sun afternoon. The cold front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning issued by Meteo- France for the marine zone of Madeira has been discontinued. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 ...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10.5W and extends southwestward to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 01.5N16W to 01N30W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02.5S43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from S of 04.5N between 13W and 38W and S of 06N between 45W and 56W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of America. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. Fresh to strong SE winds continue across most of the basin today, between high pressure over the western Atlantic near Bermuda and 1003 mb low pressure near the west Texas-northeast Mexico border. This sustained return flow is producing seas of 8 ft and higher across most of the waters W of 89.5W, with peak seas of 10-12 ft over west-contral portions. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the eastern Gulf. Fair weather prevails over the basin and no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. Fog across the northern Gulf coastal waters has burned off this morning, improving visibility there. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and low pressure over Texas and the south-central U.S. will continue forcing fresh to near gale SE winds across the basin through Sat afternoon. The moist SE flow may allow for periodic areas of sea fog across the northern Gulf into Sat. A strong late- season cold front will emerge off of the Texas coast Sat night. Fresh to near gale N winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front over the western Gulf Sun and Mon with northerly gales possible near Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz by late Sun afternoon. The cold front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N winds. The front will weaken as it moves southeast of the area Tue followed by weak high pressure over the northern Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish accordingly through Tue night in all but the far southeast Gulf where fresh winds and rough seas may persist. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. Overnight scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong trade winds across most of the basin, with winds to near gale force occurring in the central Caribbean, offshore NW Colombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are assumed to have diminished very slightly this morning. Recent altimeter satellite and buoy data shows seas are 8 to 13 ft over the central and west-central Caribbean. Outside of the immediate Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong SE winds prevail across most of the NW waters west of 80W. Seas there are 5 to 9 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds dominate the eastern basin, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving westward across the region producing isolated passing showers primarily N of 15N. Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms are observed across the SW Caribbean, south of 11N to the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda High to the Colombian Low will continue to produce fresh to near gale trades across the Caribbean through Sat afternoon. Winds will briefly reach gale-force off Colombia tonight. From Sat night through early next week, the Bermuda High will weaken, contributing toward reduced winds over the basin. However, strong trades will still continue north of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and over the Gulf of Honduras on Sun. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds. As the weakened Bermuda High shifts eastward Mon and Tue, trades across the Caribbean will be reduced to moderate to fresh. A cold front may reach the northwest Caribbean Tue with winds shifting from southeasterly to northerly. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the far NE Atlantic waters east of 42W. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. A weakening cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters along 31N34W and continues to 25N55W and on to 27N63W. Fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft follow the front. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are along the front E of 37W. The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1030 mb high pressure west of Bermuda near 32N65W. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas south of 25N and between 45W and the Bahamas. Mostly moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, a cold front has moved into Morocco this morning and is followed by a reinforcing weak front from 31N11W to 30N26W. Moderate to fresh breezes follow the front and dominate east of 35W, but with N swell producing seas 7 to 11 ft north of 14N and east of 38W, and 5 to 7 ft farther south. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will continue to force fresh to strong trades south of 25N through tonight. As the Bermuda High weakens Sat through early next week, fresh to strong trades will be restricted to the waters S of 22N, strongest across the SE Bahamas and the Windward Passage. On Sat night, a large N swell will start impacting the waters east of 60W and will subside through late Tue. Fresh to strong S winds will develop off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The front is forecast to move off of the coast Mon night, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by mid week, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. $$ Stripling