000 AXNT20 KNHC 311017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues west-southwestward to near 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 02S43W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing S of 04N and W of 14W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the northern Gulf. A trough is setting up over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Data from platforms in the northwest Gulf show areas of fog reducing visibility to 2 to 4 miles. Advisories are in effect for dense fog along the coast of Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Fresh to strong winds are probably ongoing east of the trough along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate SE breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft over most of the western Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region through today, producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight to moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink into the NW and N central Gulf coastal waters tonight, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to SE Texas by Tue morning before lifting north and dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across the Gulf Tue night through Fri to support fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the basin and moderate to rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trades over the central and northeastern sections of the basin. Trades elsewhere are in the gentle to moderate range as seen in earlier scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 8 to 9 ft north of Colombia, 3 to 6 ft in the far northwest Caribbean and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is presently observed. For the forecast, the high pressure east of Bermuda will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Large E swell will continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. High pressure will relocate N of the Caribbean Sea Wed afternoon through Fri night and bring a significant increase in winds and seas across most of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad high pressure dominates the western Atlantic, anchored by 1028 mb high pressure just east of Bermuda. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. Strong winds and seas to 9 ft are noted N of Hispaniola S of 21N between 71W-74W. Farther east, 1008 mb low pressure is centered west of Madeira, with a trough extending from the low to 23N20W. Fresh N winds and 8 ft seas are noted west of the trough to 28W, and north of 27N. Moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure E of Bermuda extends a ridge across the basin. The high will drift slowly eastward and weaken through tonight. As a result, winds and seas will diminish modestly across the forecast area through that period. A cold front will move off the SE United States coast late Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones early Wed. High pressure will then build southward again across the region Wed night through Fri, bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly across the waters S of 24N. $$ ERA