754 AXNT20 KNHC 300304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Mar 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 02S30W to 03S46W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 05N between 13W and 16W, and from 02N to 04N between 21W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida northwestward the central coast of Texas. A surface ridge extends from western Atlantic anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure east of Bermuda westward toward the northeastern Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along and north of the front over the north-central and northeast Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the basin. For the forecast, the surface ridge is shifting slowly eastward across the western Atlantic, allowing SE to S winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds, and seas to subside below 8 ft this evening. A mid to upper-level low is triggering scattered thunderstorms in the north central Gulf and will shift eastward through tonight. A weak cold front is forecast to sink across the NW and N central Gulf late on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to central Texas by Tue morning before dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across the Gulf Tue night through Thu to produce fresh to strong return flow across most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge extends north of the region, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure area east of Bermuda. A tight gradient persists between the ridge and 1008 mb low pressure over northeast Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed this pattern continues to support strong to near-gale force winds off the coast of Colombia between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Recent observations also confirm fresh to strong E winds along the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted elsewhere, except for gentle breezes over most of the northwest Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the area of strong to near-gale force winds off Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are active between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, but no significant convection is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the 1031 mb high pressure located east of Bermuda will drift eastward and gradually weaken through Mon. The associated ridge will combine with the Colombian low to support winds pulsing to near gale force at night and during the early morning hours offshore of Colombia through Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage will persist through tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola through early next week, and across the eastern Caribbean through Mon. Large E swell will impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages through Wed, building seas 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will again build across the Atlantic due N of the eastern Caribbean late Wed through Thu night to significantly strengthen the trade wind flow across most of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N43W to 25N60W, where it is dissipating toward the Turks and Caicos. A few showers and thunderstorms are active northeast of the Turks and Caicos and east of the southern Bahamas to the north of the dissipating front. 1031 mb high pressure is centered east of Bermuda near 32N57W. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong E winds mainly south of 27N and west of 45W, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Farther east, 1011 mb low pressure is centered east of the Canary Islands near 29N24W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, fresh to strong N to NE winds, and 8 to 12 ft seas are noted within 90 to 480 nm within the northwest semicircle of the low. Mostly moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will drift slowly eastward and weaken through Mon, while the front becomes east to west aligned along about 22N-23N tonight and gradually dissipates by Mon night. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas up to 12 ft N of the front this evening, begin to decrease later tonight through Sun as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front will move off the SE United States coast Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed. High pressure will then build across the region Wed night through Thu night. $$ Christensen