000 AXNT20 KNHC 291711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Mar 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to near 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 01S45W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 06N between 10W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A mid to upper level low continues to move across the lower Mississippi Valley, supporting a weakening squall line and other areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the northern Gulf N of 26N and W of 87W, also in association with a forming stationary front in the basin. A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure centered near 33N61W across Florida into the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over Mexico is supporting a large area of fresh to strong E to SE winds across most of the basin, along with seas of 5-8 ft. For the forecast, a 1032 mb high pressure located near Bermuda extends a ridge westward along 32N and across the northern Gulf waters. The pressure gradient is tight enough to support fresh to locally strong SE to S winds and moderate to rough seas across the E and central parts of the basin, including the Straits of Florida. A mid to upper level low is triggering a squall line in the north central Gulf, to the south of SE Louisiana, and will shift slowly eastward through this afternoon. The surface high pressure will drift slowly eastward across the western Atlantic this weekend, allowing winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by this afternoon, with seas then subsiding below 8 ft this evening. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Tue morning before dissipating. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to strong E winds over much of the central and E Caribbean, strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure located over the western Atlantic near Bermuda and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate seas dominate the area, with the exception of moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers mainly in the central and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a 1032 mb high pressure located just E of Bermuda will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, and combine with the Colombian low to support winds pulsing to near gale force at night and during the early morning hours offshore of Colombia through Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage will persist through tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola through early next week, and across the eastern Caribbean through Mon morning. Large E swell will impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages this weekend through Wed, building seas 8 to 10 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N45W, and continues SW to 24N61W where it becomes a stationary front and extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted along and near the frontal boundaries. Recent scatterometer and altimeter data indicate a large area of fresh to strong E to NE winds and rough seas between the frontal boundaries and the Bahamas. Farther east, a 1012 mb low pressure is spinning west of the Canary Islands near 28N22W. This low is producing some shower activity, strong to near gale force winds and 8 to 10 ft seas mainly north of 24N and E of 32N. Fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted in the tropical Atlantic west of 35W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a 1032 mb high pressure is located just E of Bermuda, while a front is becoming stationary from 25N55W through the SE Bahamas to near 22N75W. The high pressure will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, while the front gradually weakens and becomes E to W aligned along about 22N-23N by this evening. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas up to 12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will start to decrease tonight through Sun as the high pressure shifts eastward of Bermuda and weakens through the middle of next week. Another cold front will move off the SE United States coast by early Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed. $$ Adams