000 AXNT20 KNHC 291011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Mar 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to near 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01N30W to 03S44W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 06N between 10W and 20W, and from 00N to 03N between 20W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A mid to upper level low continues to move across the lower Mississippi Valley supporting a squall line in the north central Gulf, and additional thunderstorms over parts of Louisiana. A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near Bermuda across Florida into the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over Mexico is supporting a large area of fresh to strong E to SE winds across most of the basin, including the Straits of Florida where scatterometer data indicate winds of 25 to 30 kt. Recent buoy observations and altimeter data confirm the presence of moderate to rough seas within these winds. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely occurring in the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the squall line will likely weaken through the morning. The surface high pressure will drift slowly eastward across the western Atlantic this weekend, allowing winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by this afternoon, with seas then subsiding below 8 ft by late today. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Tue morning before dissipating. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, in the Gulf of Venezuela, in the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba, and across the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure located over the western Atlantic near Bermuda and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate seas dominate the area, with the exception of moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the region, producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, the high pressure located near Bermuda will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, and combine with the Colombian low to support winds pulsing to near gale force at night and during the early morning hours offshore of Colombia through Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage will persist through this morning. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola through early next week, and across the eastern Caribbean through Mon morning. Large E swell will impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages this weekend through Wed, building seas 8 to 10 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N48W, and continues SW to 24N60W where it becomes a stationary front and extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted near the frontal boundary. Recent scatterometer and altimeter data indicate a large area of strong to near-gale force winds NW of the front, with seas up to 13 ft in the open waters outside of the Bahamas. High pressure of 1030 mb located near Bermuda follows the front. Farther east, a 1008 mb low pressure is spinning west of the Canary Islands near 27N23W. This low is producing some shower activity, strong to near gale force winds and 8 to 10 ft seas mainly north of 24N between 21W and 25W based on altimeter data. Fresh trade winds and seas to 8 to 9 ft are noted in the tropical Atlantic west of 35W. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure located near the Bermuda will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, as the front moves SE and gradually weakens, and becomes E to W aligned along about 22N-23N by late today. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas up to 12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will start to decrease tonight through Sun as the high pressure shifts eastward of Bermuda and weakens through the middle of next week. Another cold front will move off the SE United States coast by early Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed. $$ GR