169 AXNT20 KNHC 290353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Mar 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to near 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 00N30W to 02S44W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 15W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A complex mid to upper level low continues to move across the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, supporting a squall line in the north central Gulf, to the south of Louisiana, and additional thunderstorms along the coast of Texas. A surface ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near Bermuda to the central Gulf. The gradient between the ridge and a trough over Mexico is supporting a large area of fresh to strong E to SE winds across all but the far southwest Gulf. Recent buoy data confirms moderate to rough seas accompany these winds. This includes fresh to strong E winds over the Straits of Florida, supporting seas perhaps as high as 9 ft. For the forecast, the squall line will likely weaken through the morning. The surface high pressure across the basin will drift slowly eastward across the western Atlantic through the weekend, allowing winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by Sat afternoon, with seas then subsiding below 8 ft by late Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Tue morning before dissipating. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds persist across portions of the Caribbean tonight, particularly off the coast of Colombia between Cartagena and Barranquilla, and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are probably reaching near-gale force. These winds are due to a strong subtropical ridge situated north of the region, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure near Bermuda. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are evident through the Windward Passage, the lee of central Cuba, and across the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate E winds are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Rough seas likely accompany the near-gale force winds off Colombia. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere. No significant convection is evident across the basin at this time. For the forecast, the 1031 mb high pressure near Bermuda will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, and combine with the Colombian low to continue to support winds pulsing to near-gale force at night and during the early morning hours offshore of Colombia through Mon morning. The fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba in the Windward Passage will persist through Sat morning. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola through early next week, and across the eastern Caribbean Sat evening through Mon morning. Large E swell will impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages this weekend through Wed, building seas 8 to 10 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 1008 mb low pressure well north of the area near 41N45W to 31N51W to 26N60W, where it becomes a stationary front and extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm to the west of the front. Recent scatterometer satellite and buoy data indicate a large area of strong to near- gale force winds persists west of the front, to the south of 1031 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda. Concurrent altimeter satellite and buoy data also show 8 to 12 ft west of the front, in the open waters outside of the Bahamas. Farther east, a complex low is centered near and to the west of the Canary Islands, supporting fresh to strong N winds and 8 to 10 ft seas mainly north of 23N between 21W and 25W. Fresh trade winds and seas to 8 to 9 ft are active in the tropical Atlantic west of 40W. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the 1031 mb high will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, as the front moves SE and gradually weakens, and becomes E to W aligned along about 22N-23N by late Sat. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas up to 12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will start to decrease Sat night through Sun as the high pressure shifts eastward of Bermuda and weakens through the middle of next week. Another cold front will move off the SE United States coast by early Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed. $$ Christensen