266 AXNT20 KNHC 281748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Mar 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues SW to near 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from the equator to 05N between 18W and 70W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge extending across Florida into the Gulf region, while a surface trough was analyzed over the W Gulf as of 1200 UTC. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds across most of the basin, accompanied by moderate seas. Seas are locally rough across interior portions of the Gulf from 23N to 28N between 85W and 95W. An area of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Gulf has formed into a squall line as of 1500 UTC, which extends from 28N94W to 22N97W. Numerous moderate convection is along and within 25-50 nm of the squall line axis, with strong to near-gale force winds occurring within the strongest convection. For the forecast, a 1031 mb high is centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast this morning and extends a ridge westward across the northern Gulf region. The pressure gradient is tight enough to support fresh to strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the basin. The high pressure will drift slowly eastward across the western Atlantic through the weekend, allowing winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. Seas will subside below 8 ft by early Sun. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours due to local effects. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite-derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong E winds over the majority of the Caribbean, with the strongest winds in the basin occurring offshore NW Colombia. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate seas dominate the area, with the exception of locally rough seas off the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are also noted over the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, 1031 mb high pressure centered offshore of Cape Hatteras will drift slowly eastward and combine with the Colombian low to support pulsing winds near gale force at night and during the early morning hours offshore of Colombia through Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage will persist through tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Large E swell will impact the Atlantic Passages this weekend building seas to around 8 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to 21N70W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 200 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the waters west of the trough/front. The front breaks up the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure about halfway between Bermuda and Charleston, SC, and a 1033 mb high pressure area localed SW of the Azores near 37N35W. This pattern supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 20W and 60W. Outside of this large region, NE to E winds are moderate to locally fresh with prevailing moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, 1031 mb high pressure is centered just offshore of Cape Hatteras, while a cold front extends from 31N55W to near Inagua Island in the SE Bahamas. The high will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, as the front moves SE and gradually becomes E to W aligned along about 23N by late Sat while weakening. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas up to 12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will start to decrease later in the weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward of Bermuda and weakens. Another cold front will move off the SE United States coast by early Tue. $$ Adams