000
AXNT20 KNHC 270610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Mar 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends SW
to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 00N31W to 01S45W. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is offshore Liberia,
Africa. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring south 
of the monsoon trough from 01S to 05N between 09W and 23W. 
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 08S to 05N between 
28W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface high pressure of 1022 mb located offshore Pensacola,
Florida extends a ridge SW across the remainder Gulf. A surface
trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent scatterometer data show
fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore the NW Peninsula and
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the remainder western half
of the Gulf. Buoy data, including SOFAR buoys, show 2-4 ft seas 
in the basin. Otherwise, scattered showers are ongoing over the NW
coastal and offshore waters associated with a frontal boundary N
of the area.  

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the 
Yucatan coast tonight and Thu night. Winds will increase to 
moderate to fresh across the NW portion Thu, then further increase
to fresh to strong Thu night into Fri while expanding in coverage
before beginning to diminish early Sat. Seas generated by these 
winds will build to around 10 ft. A weak cold front may move into 
the NW Gulf late Sun night into early next week, with winds 
diminishing to gentle to moderate ahead of it. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Central Atlantic high pressure and associated ridging extending
across the northern Caribbean waters continue to support moderate
to fresh trades across the eastern, central and portions of the SW
basin, except for locally strong winds offshore Colombia per recent
scatterometer data. Seas over these waters are 5-7 ft, except 8-9
ft with the strongest winds offshore Colombia. A surface ridge
centered over the NE Gulf of America is building and extending
across the Bahamas in the wake of a cold front N of the area. This
is resulting in moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee side of Cuba
and where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere.  

For the forecast, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale 
force speeds at night and early morning through at least the 
upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of
Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and over the waters between Cuba 
Thu night through Fri night. Similar winds will develop offshore 
central Honduras and south of Hispaniola from Thu night through 
the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Mainly moderate to 
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except diminishing to light to
gentle in the lee of Cuba late in the weekend. Northerly swell 
may impact the Atlantic Passages this weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure of 1038 mb located SW of the Azores extends a
broad ridge that covers the central and eastern subtropical waters
and great portions of the tropical waters. Recent scatterometer
data show fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 27N between 30W and
58W where seas are 8-10 ft. West of the Canary Islands, a 1023 mb
low is located near 30N26W. The pressure gradient between the low
and the aforementioned ridge is supporting an area of fresh to 
strong NE winds N of 26N between 22W and 37W and rough seas to 12 
ft. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, the tail of a cold front 
extends from 31N70W to 29N74W. Ahead of the front, a surface 
trough extends from 31N63W to 27N67W, which is supporting 
scattered showers and tstms N of 22N between 61W and 68W as 
indicated by GLM data. A second trough extends northward from 
Hispaniola to about 25N70W. Winds over the offshore waters W of 
70W are gentle to moderate from the NE, and moderate to fresh from
the SE between 55W and 65W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a couple of weak cold fronts will 
move across the northern waters through Sat. High pressure will 
build in the wake of the fronts, bringing an increase in winds 
across much of the waters south of 29N by the end of the week and 
into the weekend. Rough seas will build across the same waters as 
a result. Winds and seas will start to decrease later in the 
weekend as the high shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold 
front may move off the SE United States coast by early Tue.

$$
Ramos