000 AXNT20 KNHC 230831 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Mar 23 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight and Mon night. Seas will build to 14 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N15W and continues to 03N11W. The ITCZ extends from 03N11W to 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 13W and 33W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Surface ridging dominates the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the NE Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed just off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, off the west and NW coast of the Yucatan. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2 ft or less, are in the vicinity of the high pressure. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf, supporting moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern basin into early this week. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche nightly through early this week, supporting pulses of fresh to strong winds over adjacent waters. The next cold front may enter the northern basin late Mon, but will likely dissipate as it moves into the central and eastern Gulf through Tue night. High pressure building over the northeastern Gulf in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the northwest Gulf by Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect offshore Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for more information. Outside of the gale area, fresh to near- gale winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, with seas in the 7-10 ft range. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere S of 15N and E of 80W, with seas in the 5-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore of Colombia and Venezuela will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight and Mon night. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will pulse in the Windward Passage into early this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will extend across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through the middle of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extends over the central Atlantic waters from 30N55W to 24N78W. Moderate to locally rough seas are west of the trough to near 65W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere W of 50W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters. Fresh to strong winds, and rough to very rough seas, are N of 15N and E of 28W. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build over the western Atlantic, supporting gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas north of 22N into early this week. The area of high pressure will shift eastward Mon enabling a weak cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night. Fresh to strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola through mid week. Another front may move into waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed. $$ AL