953 AXNT20 KNHC 211814 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Mar 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge northeast of Hispaniola and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades in the south-central basin through midweek next week. During the evening and early morning hours from Saturday evening to Monday morning, these winds off northwestern Colombia will peak at gale-force. Seas of 11 to 14 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish by the middle of next week. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Conakry, then curves southwestward to 04N16W. An ITCZ continues from 04N16W through 01N30W to north of Sar Luis, Brazil at 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 04N between 10W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed up to 140 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1025 mb high just north of New Orleans continues to dominate the entire Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure is building over the northern Gulf, following a cold front that moved southeast of the basin overnight. Winds and seas are diminishing across the Gulf as a result, but fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will persist through the morning over the eastern Gulf. Afterward, the pattern will support moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through this weekend. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche nightly through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh to strong winds over adjacent waters. Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the northwestern basin early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. The weakening portion of a cold front lies southwestward from central Cuba to northern Belize. Patchy showers are seen up to 60 nm along either side of this boundary. A surface trough is triggering scattered showers over the north-central basin. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident over the southern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds along with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted for the north-central and northeastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere within the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore of Colombia and Venezuela will persist to midweek next week. The cold front will dissipate this afternoon. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba into early next week. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras late this weekend into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from west of Bermuda across 31N70W to beyond the northwest Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 80 nm east of the front. At central Atlantic, another cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N51W to 26N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection exist near and up to 90 nm southeast of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong S to W to NW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are found behind both cold fronts north of 26N between 45W and 49W, and 65W and 75W. Otherwise gentle to moderate E to SE to SW winds and 6 to 9 ft in mixed swells exist north of 20N between 35W and the Georgia/Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 00N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, the first cold front will reach from 31N55W to 26N65W early Sat, with the southern portion stalling and starting to dissipate through central Cuba. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front north of 25N through tonight, then diminish. Rough to very rough seas will also follow the front and subside to moderate seas by late Sat. The northern portion of the front will shift east of 55W by late Sat, followed by high pressure building over the western Atlantic along 30N. This pattern will support gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas north of 22N into early next week. Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift eastward Mon ahead of a weak cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast. Fresh to strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola late Sun through Tue. $$ Chan