000 AXNT20 KNHC 210015 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Mar 21 2025 Corrected Atlantic Ocean section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from northeast Florida southwestward to 24N89W and to Veracruz, Mexico. Overcast low and mid-level clouds with scattered showers are seen over the SW Gulf south of 21N and west of 93W. Latest observation from Veracruz indicates minimal gale-force northwest winds. Isolated showers are possible along and to within about 120 nm southeast of the front east of 93W. An ASCAT pass from this afternoon depicted fresh to near gale-force north winds behind the front over the western while fresh to strong northwest to north winds are elsewhere behind the front. Seas in the NW Gulf are in the range from 7 to 11 ft and 9 to 14 ft in the north-central and NE Gulf. Once the front has exited the basin late tonight, both winds and seas should gradually subside thereafter. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient between relatively higher pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure in Colombia will allow for fresh to strong trades in the south-central part of the basin to pulse up to gale-force speeds at night and into the early morning hours going into early next week. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish by the middle of next week. Western Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large northwest swell with period of 12-14 seconds is sustaining seas of 12 to 16 ft north of 25N between 54W and 65W. As the northwest swell continues to decay, this area of very rough seas should gradually subside through tonight while propagating eastward. These seas are expected to lower below 12 ft early on Friday morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Gambia, and continues south-southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 01N25W to 01N40W and to near 01N49W. No significant convection is presently observed. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicated gentle to moderate south to southwest winds to the southeast of the cold front that is mentioned in the Special Features section and east of 87W. Seas there are 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell. Elsewhere southeast of the front and west of 87W, light to gentle north to northeast winds are present along with seas of 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell. For the forecast, the front will exit the basin late tonight, and winds and seas are expected to diminish from northwest to southeast on Fri. High pressure will build over the Gulf Fri, supporting moderate to locally fresh south to southeast winds over the western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern basin through this weekend. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will move into the Bay of Campeche nightly Fri through Sun, enhancing winds to fresh to strong speeds in the Peninsula adjacent waters. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. A surface trough is analyzed from the Leeward Islands southwestward to just north of ABC Islands. Isolated showers are possible near the trough, and with the trade wind flow from 13N to 16N east of about 79W. Another trough is analyzed from near eastern south to Jamaica and to near 12N77W. No significant convection is noted with this feature. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes generally showed fresh northeast to east winds in the far south-central part of the basin. Seas there are 4 to 6 ft. Higher winds of 20 to 30 kt are south of 13N between 72W and 76W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft. The scatterometer satellite data passes also revealed gentle northeast to east winds west of about 78W, and gentle to moderate northeast to east winds elsewhere. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are elsewhere in the basin, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft east of 76W. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will occur offshore of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week as low pressure remains over northwestern Colombia. Winds are expected to pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia each night and early morning Fri into early next week, with a brief period of gales possible in the Gulf of Venezuela Sat night. Rough to locally very rough seas will accompany these winds. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the southwestern, central and eastern basin today will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds Fri through early next week as the pressure gradient strengthens between the Colombian low and high pressure building north of the region. Elsewhere, a cold front moving across the Gulf of America will enter the northwestern Caribbean late tonight, leading to moderate to fresh NE winds and locally rough seas in the wake of the front through Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected to pulse through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba Fri into early next week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE winds are slated to develop across the Gulf of Honduras by late weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between the aforementioned high pressure and low pressure moving through the southeastern United States. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front stretches south-southwestward into the area through 31N51W to 24N53W and to 18N59W, where it transitions to a trough to the Leeward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is evident near and up to 180 nm east of the front. Farther west, a large 1003 mb cut-off low just north of the area at 32N59W is drifting northeastward. A trough extends from the low to 27N65W and to 25N70W. Satellite imagery shows increased scattered moderate convection north of 22N between 45W and 52W and north of 27N between 52W and 58W. Some of this activity contains frequent lightning. Outside the Significant swell area mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong west to northwest winds along with 8 to 11 ft seas in moderate to large northwest swell are present from 19N to 25N between the cold front and 66W. To the west, gentle to moderate west to northwest winds along with 5 to 8 ft seas are present north of 20N between 66W and the Georgia/Florida coast. For the central Atlantic north of 20N between 48W and the cold front, moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted. Farther east, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells are seen north of 20N between 35W and 48W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate northeast to southeast winds along with seas of 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, strong to near-gale force south to southwest winds will occur north of 24N and east of 63W through late tonight, as a low pressure system lifts northeastward through the central Atlantic. Rough seas associated with this system will propagate southeastward through Fri, with seas in excess of 8 ft expected north of 16N and east of 75W through late tonight, and north of 14N and east of 62W by late Fri morning. Peak seas of 12 to 16 ft will occur north of 20N between 68W and 55W into Fri morning. Farther west, fresh to strong SW winds will occur this afternoon off the coast of Florida ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of America. The cold front is slated to move off the coast of the southeastern United States later today, supporting strong to near-gale force W to NW winds and rough seas in excess of 8 ft in its wake. The front will progress eastward Fri through Sat, leading to fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, and strong to near-gale force winds and locally very rough seas behind the front into early Sat. Looking ahead, fresh trade winds and rough seas are expected to develop east of the Windward Islands this weekend into early next week. Elsewhere, high pressure will build over the western Atlantic this weekend. $$ Aguirre