000 AXNT20 KNHC 170455 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Mar 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed near 23N54W. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate gale force winds in the northern semicircle of the low center, particularly from 25N to 29N between 50W and 56W. These winds are within a larger area of fresh to strong easterly winds that covers roughly the waters from 22N to 31N between 40W and 65W. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure of 1035 mb located NE of the low center. Gale conditions will likely last through Mon night, then diminish to fresh to strong winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. The low will move toward the NW over the next 24 hours, then northward through mid-week while weakening. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system are more concentrated on the SE quadrant of the low where strong to gale force southerly winds are also noted. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Liberia/Sierra Leone border near 07N11.5W and continues southwestward to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01S30W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02.5S43W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is exiting the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia, extending west to 13W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring elsewhere from 03N to 07N between 09W and 13W. Similar convective activity is also seen from the equator to 03N between 17W and 31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front affecting parts of Florida, the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and the Yucatan Peninsula. This convective activity is also reaching the Yucatan Channel. High pressure of 1024 mb located over the NW Gulf follows the front. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds and moderate to rough seas are noted in the wake of the front while gentle to moderate SW winds are moderate seas are occurring ahead of the front. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move southeast and away from the area tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will prevail though late Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the basin Mon through mid week. As the high pressure moves toward N Florida, fresh to strong southerly return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the Gulf region by mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean while a cold front is moving across the SE Gulf of America and the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is allowing for fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the NW Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is noted across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers, except in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula where showers and thunderstorms are seen ahead of a cold front. For the forecast, the cold front will enter the NW Caribbean during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front, which is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Mon night, and from the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue night into Wed. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the NW Caribbean from Mon through mid week. In addition, NE fresh to strong winds will pulse across southern Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Haiti through the same period due to a developing low pressure north of the area. Seas in this area will range from 4 to 8 ft. High pressure over the central north Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds at night offshore Colombia throughout the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated with a strengthening low pressure. Refer to the Special Features section for more details. A 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed near 23N54W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. A surface trough extends from the low center to near 20N63W. A narrow band of mainly low clouds is related to the trough. Strong high pressure of 1035 mb located N of area near 35N45W extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds are observed per scatterometer data offshore north and central Florida due to the pressure gradient between the ridge over the western Atlantic and a cold front moving across Florida. Farther E, a cold front reaches the Canary Islands followed by moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 14 ft seas in NW swell, east of 35W. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, as the above mentioned low moves NW over the next 24 hours, gale force winds and gusts to storm force could be possible from 27N to 29N and east of 57W through Mon. These winds will likely continue through Mon night, then diminishing to fresh to strong speeds by Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast tonight with fresh to near-gale force winds and rough seas in its vicinity. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. By mid week, a low pressure system may develop along this front supporting near-gale to gale force winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas. $$ GR