000 AXNT20 KNHC 160453 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Mar 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to develop in the central Atlantic late on Sun. As the system intensifies, gale-force winds are expected by Sun evening across the northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 25N between 45W and 55W. Rough to very rough seas are forecast with these winds. The low will move NW through mid-week while weakening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N22W to the coast of NE Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the equator E of 20W, and from 01N to 03N between 20W and 24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters and reaches from southeast Louisiana to Tuxpan, Mexico. Recent satellite derived wind data confirm the presence of fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front. Combined seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft across the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted in the wake of the front. Thunderstorms ahead of the front are moving through the lower Mississippi Valley and extend into the far north-central Gulf mainly N of 28N between 87W and 90W. For the forecast, the front will move southeast and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning, and move E of the Gulf Sun night. Northerly winds behind the front will increase to fresh to strong speeds today though Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the basin Mon through mid week. As the high pressure moves toward N Florida fresh to strong southerly return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front is slated to enter the Gulf region by mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of America. This pattern is allowing for fresh to strong SE to S winds over the the NW Caribbean, particularly N of 15N and W of 83W, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in the Windward Passage as well as over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with the strongest winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow. are noted across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, the fresh to strong southerly winds over the NW Caribbean will diminish later today as the cold front currently moving across the Gulf of America reaches the Yucatan Channel by tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Mon night, and from the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue night into Wed. High pressure over the central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds at night offshore Colombia through early this week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated with a developing low pressure. Refer to the Special Features section for more details. A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N24W and continues southwestward to near 22N42W, where it transitions into a stationary frontal boundary that extends to 20N60W. Farther north, 1032 mb high pressure centered near 37N48W dominates the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the high and the frontal boundary supports a large area of fresh to strong E winds N of the stationary front between 44W and 64W, where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range. Fresh NE to E winds and large northerly swell of 8 to 13 ft is noted elsewhere north of the front. Moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. A short wave trough in the mid/upper levels is interacting with the frontal boundary to support scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly from 19N to 24N between 45W and 56W. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed at 25N24W, extending a weak ridge across much of the remaining subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic. Higher sea heights of 8 to 10 ft are observed per altimeter data between the W coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, a developing low pressure over the central Atlantic will support gale-force winds east of 60W by Sun night. These conditions will likely last through Mon night, then diminishing to fresh to strong speeds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to very seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast late Sun night preceded and followed by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. $$ GR