467 
AXNT20 KNHC 150505
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Mar 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Sierra Leone, Africa near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 
01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 01N25W to 00N30W to 01S46W. A
cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from the 
Equator to 03N between 18W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 00N to 02N between 18W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Low pressure is steadily building across the Gulf of America.
Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong SE to S winds
across the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft N of 22N and W of 85W. Seas of 1 to
3 ft are between the W coast of Florida and 85W, and in the Bay 
of Campeche.

For the forecast, low pressure will continue to build across the 
basin ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf 
by this morning, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay
of Campeche by Sun morning, and move E of the Gulf Mon morning. 
Fresh to strong southerly winds will expand across most of the 
basin ahead of the front today. Near-gale force winds are expected
offshore Veracruz on Sun in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
high pressure will settle over the basin Mon through mid week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean
while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of America. This 
pattern is allowing for fresh to strong E to SE winds over the 
Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean mainly S of 19N and W of 85W.
Similar wind speeds from the NE and E are noted offshore Colombia.
Moderate NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in the Windward
Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the remainder of
the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with the strongest winds, and 1 to 
3 ft elsewhere. The proximity of a stationary front combined with
an upper-level low is helping to induce some shower activity over
Puerto Rico and regional waters as well as over the northern
Leeward Islands. Elsewhere shallow moisture, embedded in the trade
wind flow noted producing isolated to scttrd passing showers.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Atlantic will build 
while it shifts SE to the central Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse at night offshore Colombia through early next 
week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward
Passage and south of the Dominican Republic through the weekend. 
Fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will reach strong speeds 
tonight and expand to the remaining NW Caribbean W of 82W ahead of
a cold front forecast to move across the Yucatan Channel into the
NW basin Mon morning. Rough seas are expected with the strong 
winds preceding the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 
moderate seas will be associated with the passage of the front, 
which is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue
morning, from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening 
before dissipating late Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N32W and 
continues SW to near 24N45W where it transitions into a stationary
frontal boundary that extends to near 19N65W. Scattered showers
thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front N of 25N. An area of
cloudiness, with embedded showers is within about 250 nm N of the
stationary front between 54W and 61W. A trough is analyzed from 
28N67W to 23N65W. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is E of 
the trough axis. The pressure gradient between the trough and high
pressure N of the forecast region supports an area of fresh to 
strong easterly winds from 23N to 29N between 55W and the trough 
axis. Mainly fresh winds are noted in the wake of the front with 
seas up to 14 ft. 

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed
at 25N27W, extending a weak ridge across much of the remaining 
subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds and moderate
seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic except in the vicinity
of the Cabo Verde Islands where moderate to fresh NE wind are
occurring with seas of 6 to 8 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the tail end of the above mentioned 
front will lift N through the weekend while weakening. High pressure
over the NW Atlantic will build while it shifts SE to the central
Atlantic waters through early next week. The pressure gradient 
between the associated ridge and the remnants of the aforementioned
front will lead to the development of fresh to strong winds north
of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend. These winds will support
building rough seas across E of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a 
strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast early 
Mon preceded and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds. The 
front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern 
Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. 

$$
GR