000 AXNT20 KNHC 132337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Mar 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 00N22W. The ITCZ extends from 00N22W to 03S43W into coastal Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 06N between the coast of Africa to 36W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A trough has been analyzed from 24N92W southwestward to 19N95W, and weak ridging extends across the remainder of the Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate SE to SW winds prevail through the basin with seas of 1-3 ft. No significant convection is occurring across the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging extending from high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters into the eastern Gulf will slide E through tonight as low pressure continues to build over the remainder of the basin ahead of the next front. Southerly gentle to moderate winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds across the western Gulf tonight and expand to the remaining basin Fri. Southerly winds will further increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf Sat morning. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning and move E of the Gulf Mon morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the northern basin Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends over Puerto Rico southwestward to 17N70W. A rather weak pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area to a 1009 mb low along the coast of Colombia is contributing toward only gentle to moderate trades, except for fresh to strong NE winds just north of Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft over the S central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is occurring across the basin. For the forecast, the tail of a cold front that extends from the central Atlantic SW to 23N55W to NE Puerto Rico will stall tonight before it starts lifting N through Sun when it will start to dissipate. Moderate NW swell associated with the front will continue to impact the Atlantic passages through early Fri morning. High pressure NE of the Bahamas will shift slowly NE through Sun night to support pulsing fresh to locally strong trades off NW Colombia, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic. Similar winds will pulse off eastern Honduras, becoming fresh to strong SE to S winds Fri night through early Sun. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Mon morning, with increasing winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, and from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to 24N55W to Puerto Rico. Ahead of the front, SW winds are fresh to near gale north of 27N. Behind the front, NW to N winds are fresh to strong north of 29N. Seas are 8-13 ft in mixed wind waves and W swell north of 25N between 40W-65W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 NM of the front. In the E Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from the coast of Western Sahara near 23N16W west-southwestward to 21N20W, and continues as a trough to 22N35W. Winds are W to NW fresh to strong north of 27N east of 25W. Seas are 8-18 ft north of 21N east of 35W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the tail of the cold front in the central Atlantic will stall tonight before it starts lifting N through Sun when it will start to dissipate. Large NW to W swell behind the front will shift E and SE through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds again north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the remnants of the front and strong high pressure to the north. These winds will support building rough seas across E of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast early Mon preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. The front will reach from 31N70W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Tue morning. $$ ADAMS