235 
AXNT20 KNHC 122343
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Mar 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near 31N55W to
the north coast of the Dominican Republic. Gale force SW wind and
rough seas continue along the front north of 29N, while strong NW
to W winds and very rough seas prevail behind the front north of 
27N. Strong thunderstorms are north of 21N within 150 NM ahead of
the front. The front will reach from 31N54W to near Puerto Rico 
tonight with gale force winds diminishing south of 31N. Large NW 
to W swell behind the front will shift eastward through Thu. Winds
and seas will diminish and subside from west to east through Fri 
as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of 
the front. 

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and extends to
04S27W. The ITCZ continues from 04S27W to 05S38W. Numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is in the Gulf of Guinea,
south of 05N and east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed south of 03N between 15W and 45W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure centered over the E Gulf of America 
dominates the basin, and is maintaining fairly tranquil weather 
conditions. Moderate southerly winds and seas prevail west of 92W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the eastern 
Gulf of America will slide eastward across Florida and into the W 
Atlantic by Thu. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will 
prevail over the western basin tonight, then weaken by early Thu 
as a front approaches SE Texas. Southerly winds will then increase
to fresh to strong speeds across most of the basin Fri, then to 
strong Fri night ahead of the front. The cold front will move into
the NW portion by early Sat, reaching from the Florida Panhandle 
to just S of Veracruz, Mexico by Sun morning. A reinforcing push 
may advance the front out of the basin by early Mon, with high 
pressure settling over the basin Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from Haiti and just south of
the Windward Passage to far southern Cuba. Locally moderate N to 
NE winds and moderate seas prevail north of the front. High 
pressure over the eastern Gulf of America supports moderate to 
fresh easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean 
waters S of 15N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will 
dissipate this evening. Weak high pressure north of the area will 
support pulsing fresh to strong trades off northern Colombia 
through the next several days, while moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds pulse near the Windward Passage and offshore of the 
Dominican Republic. Similar winds will pulse off eastern Honduras,
becoming fresh to strong Fri night through early Sun. Mainly 
moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere, locally fresh in 
the eastern Caribbean. A cold front may approach the Yucatan 
Channel late in the weekend into early next week, with the 
potential for increasing winds and building seas behind it. 
Meanwhile, moderate northerly swell will impact Atlantic passages 
late tonight through Thu night, with a larger NE swell arriving 
late in the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale 
Warning in the SW North Atlantic.

The SW North Atlantic west of 55W is dominated by a strong cold 
front moving across the waters, with the impacts associated with 
this boundary described above in the Special Features section. A
reinforcing cold front follows the leading front that is
generating the gales. This second front extends from 31N58W to 
25N66W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are noted as far west as 
70W and N of 25N. W of 70W, winds are light to gentle. The 
remainder central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a
broad surface ridge, which is being intersected by a cold front 
that extends from 30N12W to 25N27W where it stalls and continues 
SW to 26N47W. Fresh to strong winds W to NW winds follow the 
front E of 28W and N of 28N. Rough seas in the 8-14 ft range 
associated with the front are affecting the waters N of 25N and E 
of 43W. Otherwise, moderate trades are ongoing across the 
tropical waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the first cold front will reach 
from 25N55W to near the Virgina Islands by early Thu while 
weakening. Gale force winds ahead of the front will shift east of 
55W by late evening. The southern portion of the front will become
stationary across the coastal waters of Puerto Rico by Fri 
morning then dissipate. Large NW to W swell behind the front will 
shift eastward through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish and 
subside from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds over
the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Winds are forecast
to increase north of 22N this weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens. These winds will support building seas across most of 
the basin. The next cold front may push off the SE United States 
coast early next week.

$$
ADAMS